John Homenuk

A bit more unsettled today, Karen disorganized

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Warmer temperatures have been the trend over the past few days — and the pleasant streak of weather we have experienced over the last few weeks now looks to take a brief respite as we head into the weekend and the early part of next week. Increasing humidity today, coupled with a nearby boundary and mid-level atmospheric disturbance will mean increasing clouds and the chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Showers and storms haven’t been around in a while — in fact, almost two weeks (more in some spots). Today will bring isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the area from west to east, but the main story will be the humid feeling air and presence of more clouds than sun.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

The unsettled weather will continue through later tonight, but only scattered showers are expected this weekend. The main story will then be the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, and whether they track close enough to our area up the East Coast early next week to provide tropical rains. Forecast models have diverged in solutions, with some showing tropical rains and some wind while others now shunt the remnants of the system eastward out to sea.

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John Homenuk

Comet ISON’s moment of truth not far away

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Several months ago, it was heralded as the upcoming “Comet of the Century”. Whether exaggerated or not, the general theme in all predictions for Comet ISON, which is expected to streak through the sky during November and December 2013, was that it would be a once-in-a-lifetime event. Some predictions even ventured to say that ISON would shine brighter than a full moon in the night sky, and be visible during the daylight hours.

But suddenly, as astronomers and amateurs alike began to capture new images of Comet ISON drawing closer to our neighborhood of the universe, the predictions changed. Newer imagery showed that ISON was not nearly as bright as anticipated, and out of the woodworks came the reports that the comet may not be seen at all.

While reports of the comet’s demise may be greatly exaggerated, the wild reports of an astronomical event for the ages may be as well. The truth it, we don’t know just yet how bright ISON may eventually be. The key lies in the path, and timing, of ISON’s future over the next few weeks.

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John Homenuk

Wednesday to bring another gem, another launch

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The weather on Tuesday was amazingly comfortable, with plenty of sun and a light breeze. When we said earlier this week that the weather would be incredible this entire work week, we weren’t kidding. Another gem of a day is expected on Wednesday, as highs will moderate only a few degrees towards the lower to mid 70’s. A Canadian high pressure system will remain in control through Friday, and highs will rise a little bit each day as the airmass modifies. But clear skies and light winds are expected once again on Wednesday — making the midweek day especially pleasant. A chilly start can be expected once again for the morning commute on Wednesday, as lows will dip into the upper 30’s and 40’s in the suburbs for the second straight morning.

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John Homenuk

Unsettled weather, and the return of the Perseids

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7 days into the month of August, and the general feeling in the air has been more autumn-like than anything else. How many times in the past several years have we been able to say that? Well, very few is the simple answer — Augusts have averaged much warmer and more humid than the first week of 2013’s. That being said, these things have a funny way of balancing themselves out. “Climo (climatology) will always catch up” is the famous saying throughout meteorology. We’ll see if it applies this month.

One thing is for sure, the low humidity and sun-filled weather of the past several days is on the way out. It’s hard not to notice it already this Wednesday morning. The culprit? A high pressure system (the one responsible for the gorgeous weather) is slipping offshore. As a result, surface winds have turned southeasterly — off the ocean waters. Moisture will slowly increase over the next 12-24 hours. The rain may hold off until the evening on Wednesday, as the atmosphere still needs some work (namely more moisture content) to be able to produce precipitation.

By Thursday, the atmosphere will have moistened up – and an approaching warm front will provide isentropic lift and promote the development of showers and thunderstorms. Much of the same is expected through Friday, with precipitable water values approaching 2″ by Friday near and ahead of a cold front.

Some more pleasant weather is on the horizon this weekend behind the front, but we have a few days of cloudy and stormy conditions to get through before we can enjoy the warm sun once again.

Perseid’s return to light up the night sky: The annual Perseid meteor shower returns over the next week – and stargazers will be excited to learn that this years shower once again looks promising. The shower actually began a few days ago, and will continue to increase in numbers each night until a peak between August 11th-13th. Clouds will obstruct any meteor viewing through Friday, but this weekend could offer some prime-time viewing. Stay tuned for more updates as the peak approaches!