Update: Freeze possible in area suburbs this week

Wednesday AM Update: A weak coastal storm passing offshore, on a frontal boundary which crossed the area last night, is helping to develop some showers along the coast of New Jersey and along the shores of Long Island. The system will move quickly seaward today, owing to a fast and progressive pattern aloft. Temperatures this morning, away from the coast, fell into the 30s and 40s. Highs will reach only the mid 50s.

It is once the storm system passes, that west-northwesterly winds will begin in earnest — and they will usher in the coldest air of the year to date. Low temperatures on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning may fall into the lower 30s across the interior and 40s even in the city and urban areas. This would likely suffice for the first freeze of the year for many interior locations. But more notably in terms of sensible weather, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s each day later this week, with a blustery wind expected. It will certainly feel more like autumn than it has at any point so far this year.

The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for Sussex County in NW NJ from 2:00 to 9:00am Thursday morning. Frost Advisories also in effect for Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen (NJ) Rockland, Putnam (NY) and Fairfield, New Haven (CT).

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

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Forecast: Gorgeous, crisp fall weekend behind front

Warmer and unsettled weather which affected the area late this week is on the way out, being pushed away by a cold front which pushed through the region Thursday Night. The first in a series of expected cold fronts through late next week, cooler and less humid air will spill into the region by Friday afternoon. Luckily, along with the cooler air will come pleasant conditions with clearing skies and light westerly winds. This weekends weather will be characterized by plenty of sunshine, and temperatures topping out in the upper 60s. As it looks now, another gem on a long running list of great weekends which stretched back to September.

Visible satellite imagery from the morning of October 18th, 2013 showing improving conditions behind a cold front.

Visible satellite imagery from the morning of October 18th, 2013 showing improving conditions behind a cold front.

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Fireball reported, ISON and Orionid updates

Widespread reports of a fireball, seen streaking through the sky last night around 830pm, continue to funnel in this afternoon. The American Meteor Society says they have recieved 71 official sighting reports of the meteor. Based on those details, they have concluded that the meteor entered the skies over New Jersey at 8:25pm, moving north-northwestward and eventually landing somewhere in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The data remains preliminary and the investigation into the event continues. The heat map, pictured below, shows the frequency of reported meteor sightings throughout the Northeast US.

Heat map of reported meteor sightings from October 14, 2013. Courtesy American Meteor Society.

Heat map of reported meteor sightings from October 14, 2013. Courtesy American Meteor Society.

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Comet ISON, expected to thrill, may be dying

What was once heralded as the potential “Comet of the Century” may be an equally large disappointment. Although previous reports of the comets demise may have been significantly exaggerated, new information reveals that not only is the comet underwhelming as it races towards the sun — it is also smaller than expected, and tracking in a very dangerous area for comets that wish to survive.

The comet recently passed near Mars, where NASA utilized several imaging tools to view it. It was this imaging, coupled with thousands of others which have been taken over the last several months, which revealed that Comet ISON may not be what it was initially perceived to be. The comet, which was discovered over a year ago and began brightening ahead of schedule, would have eventually reached a magnitude of -17 if it had continued to brighten at such a rate. But, over the last 4-6 months, the comets brightening has “stalled”. And this is bad, bad news for those who are hoping for a bright comet this autumn and winter.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescop, near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

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