John Homenuk

Some storms possible on Wednesday, tropical system offshore

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The National Hurricane Center designated Tropical Depression Six on Monday, and it is expected to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm by the morning hours of Tuesday. The system will pass well east of the area this week, but higher swells and surf are possible on area beaches.

Calm and pleasant weather is generally expected to continue today, with high temperatures in the 70’s and low humidity. Change is in the air, however, with a frontal system approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the opportunity for showers and storms will increase again.

The best chance will likely come later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with a front approaching the area. This is a transient, relatively weak front and it won’t have much instability to work with. In other words, don’t expect any intense thunderstorms. Instead, a few scattered storms are likely – especially over the Interior and in New England.

Here are the latest highlights and links:

  • Calm weather will continue today, with low humidity and comfortable temperatures, albeit several degrees warmer than this weekend.
  • A tropical system, perhaps Tropical Storm Erin by this morning, will meander well offshore this week. This storm may produced enhanced swells, surf, and rip current risk at area beaches later this week.
  • Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday evening. Scattered in nature and generally non-severe, these shouldn’t be a big trouble maker.
  • The weather improves again this weekend and into the early part of next week, but trends a bit warmer (seasonable is the best way to put it).
  • Eyes will continue to be on Tropical Storm Dorian, which may or may not make a move at the Bahamas later this week and weekend. Here’s our latest briefing on that system.
John Homenuk

Weekly Briefing: Pleasant weather until midweek

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Pleasant and calm weather will continue until at least midweek in NYC and surrounding areas. High pressure has built in and established itself in New England. It will continue to funnel seasonably cool, lower humidity air into the region through Tuesday. Forecast model guidance shows nearly zero chance of rain through that time.

The weather pattern will turn active once again as we move past midweek. A few storm systems will emerge from the Central United States, moving toward the area by Wednesday. The chance for showers and storms will increase by that time. A generally “cool” and active pattern should then persist thereafter.

One interesting thing to note in the medium range forecast is the absence of any heat signal on weather models. Confidence is very high that we’ve made it through the worst of the heat and humidity for this year.

Here are the latest highlights as we move into the new work week:

  • Dry, calm and cool over the next few days. Low humidity, too, which continues to feel great.
  • The weather turns unsettled again by midweek, but we aren’t seeing signals for anything anomalous at this point. Fairly typical chances for showers and storms.
  • This active and generally cooler pattern will continue. There are no signals for big heat or big storms on the horizon.
  • Tropical Storm Dorian continues tracking very slowly northwestward in the Atlantic. The system will approach Puerto Rico by midweek, and is then forecast to weak to a Tropical Depression. Impacts to the US Mainland appear unlikely at this time.
  • We’ll be continuing to upgrade our website through this evening. Expect some downtime – just shoot us a DM on Twitter or an email if you need anything.
  • You’ve probably read about folks who were struck by lightning this weekend on a PGA golf course. This is yet another reminder of how important it is to head indoors any time a thunderstorm is near you – and to never take shelter under a tree.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday evening!

John Homenuk

Beautiful weather to continue into early next week

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High pressure building in from New England will provide comfortable weather conditions for the next several days. Most notably, lower dew points will settle in and keep the humidity low. Temperatures will average slightly below normal this weekend before creeping back up toward normal by Monday.

The high pressure system will do an admirable job of deflecting storm systems away from the region. A tropical disturbance emerging from the Caribbean will be shunted out to sea, while a few fronts will also be pushed northward into the Great Lakes. Most model guidance has zero precipitation in the NYC Metro area through Tuesday evening.

The stretch of calm weather couldn’t come at a better time. New York City has seen several days of strong to severe thunderstorms, high humidity and warm temperatures. In fact, dating back to July, the stretch of abnormal humidity and storminess has lasted almost four weeks.

The next chance for active weather, with precipitation and storm chances, will come during the middle of next week. For now, let’s soak this all in. Here are your highlights:

Now get outside, open those windows and enjoy your weekend!

John Homenuk

Showers linger today before much improved weather arrives

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A front will meander near the area today, leading to showery and rainy conditions through the afternoon. As the day goes on, the front will shift southward and by this evening the weather will begin to improve markedly. Dew points will decrease significantly, with much more comfortable air settling in.

Most guidance is in good agreement, though, that showers will be a mainstay in today’s forecast. The front simply isn’t in a hurry to move past our area. It’ll shift south of NYC after 5pm, with the last of the showers out of the metro by 7. As usual, it will take a bit longer to move through parts of Southern New Jersey.

By Saturday, dew points will have dropped into the 50’s throughout the area. This is a huge change compared to what we have been experiencing over the past several days. In fact, by Saturday evening, some areas may see dew points in the 40’s – we haven’t seen those since Spring! The pleasant and refreshing weather is expected to continue through the weekend. Here are your highlights:

  • Showers are likely to persist today near a front that is not in any hurry to move past our area.
  • These will gradually begin clearing the area from north to south later today.
  • Most likely time for improving weather in NYC is 5-7 pm, with much improved weather likely tonight.
  • A major drop in dew points is expected by Saturday, with high temperatures in the 70’s and dew points only in the 50’s.
  • The improved weather will persist through the weekend and into early next week, but a few disturbances may return to the forecast with the chance for showers by early next week once again.