John Homenuk

Heat returns, scattered severe storms Saturday afternoon

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A transitional ridge will build into the area from Friday Night into Saturday, with warming temperatures and increasing moisture expected. While this ridge won’t be necessarily large, it will bring much warmer air in both the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. This will lead to increasing instability late Friday into Saturday, ahead of an approaching cold front which will be lingering to our north over Southeast Canada.

This front will begin sagging southward on Saturday morning and afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms likely to develop near the area during the early afternoon. Moderate instability in the atmosphere is expected to juxtapose with favorable wind shear to support the development of these strong and severe storms, which will sink southeastward through NJ, NYC and Long Island.

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John Homenuk

Strong and severe thunderstorms possible Saturday

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While lower dew points have been very well received in our area over the past several days, a warming trend will be underway once again by Friday. Increasing temperatures and moisture will become notable as winds, which had been coming inland off the area waters for the past few days, with to a warmer southwesterly direction. A transient ridge building overhead will aid in the warming temperatures moving into the Northeast US on both Friday and Saturday.

To our north, meanwhile, an expansive disturbance over Southeast Canada will begin shifting southeastward through parts of the Northeast US. While forecast models don’t currently show a strong or robust area of vorticity with this disturbance, the very broad disturbance has expansive height falls of its own. These act to supplement lift in the atmosphere along a cold front, which will be dropping southeastward through the Northeast states on Saturday.

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John Homenuk

Analysis: Heavy rain, storm potential Friday morning

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A mid level atmospheric disturbance will approach the area from the southwest later Thursday Night into Friday morning, bringing with it plenty of tropical moisture and lift. As the disturbance shifts toward the Mid Atlantic states and eventually off the coast, a surface low pressure area will develop in the same adjacent areas. This will enhance lift in the atmosphere — allowing heavy rain to develop just to the north of the low pressure area.

Within an airmass characterized by precipitable water values over 2.50″, this lift will support the development of heavy, torrential rains from Thursday Night into Friday. Movement from southwest to northeast of heavy rain, and embedded thunderstorms, is anticipated. Exactly where the heaviest bands fall will depend on a few things; namely convection, and placement of the best mid level lift and vertical velocity.

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John Homenuk

Multiple rounds of strong storms possible this weekend

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A well advertised weather pattern, featuring a large ridge over the Central United States and building heat in the Northeast US, will come to fruition this week. Temperatures will increase fairly dramatically as the end of the week and weekend approaches, with high temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 90s from Friday through Sunday. In addition to the discussed heat has been a well advertised threat for strong and severe thunderstorms.

Along the top of the mentioned ridge will come several atmospheric disturbances, riding along the ridges periphery as the jet stream is shoved to the north with the ridges development. The positioning of the ridge over the Central US suggests these disturbances will slide from Southern Canada, through the Great Lakes, and into the Northeast states late this week and weekend.

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