John Homenuk

Evening Update: Dreary weather settles in

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An unsettled and active weather pattern is upon us, putting an end to a long stretch of slightly above normal temperatures and very pleasant conditions with low humidity and clear skies. A frontal boundary near the area this evening will be the culprit behind the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms (although the storms appear pretty unlikely at this point with very little instability). These showers will remain in the area through the overnight hours as the disturbance moves along a mid level atmospheric gradient near our area. A break in the action is expected on Thursday, but we will be in between disturbances. By Thursday afternoon and evening, the chances for showers will increase yet again. Forecast models are hinting at the potential development of a low pressure area just south of Long Island very early Friday morning, which could bring some heavier/steadier rains to the area as well as a period of gusty winds especially on Long Island. Another system will move along the front and impact the area later in the weekend, from Saturday into Sunday with another chance of showers and steady rain. Temperatures throughout the period will run slightly below normal, especially on the second half of the weekend as the front sags south of the area and more cool/damp air is able to work in to the area.

Latest NYC-Area radar imagery courtesy of weather-underground shows the intensity and movement of precipitation over the last hour.

Wednesday Night: Continuing chances of showers throughout most of the night – but the front will begin to sink south of the area overnight. Temperatures will fall accordingly.

Thursday: This looks to be the most pleasant day of the second half of the week. In between disturbances – most models have partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70′s. Increasing clouds by the evening as the second disturbance approaches.

Thursday Night: Clouds increase and a chance of showers return ahead of a disturbance approaching the area. Low temperatures end up only near 60 degrees in the city and upper 50′s elsewhere due to the cloud cover.

Friday: More showers and clouds throughout the day with the area being affected by a mid level disturbance riding along a front which will be stalled near the area. Cooler and more damp with high temperatures in the 60′s in many locations.

John Homenuk

Midweek weather takes an unsettled turn

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An unusually long stretch of pleasant fall weather will come to an end on Wednesday, as mid level disturbances work towards the area, and a

Infrared satellite imagery from September 25th, 2012 showing the approaching disturbances that will affect our area Wed through Sun.

frontal boundary approaches and eventually stalls near or just south of the area. The result in sensible weather will be developing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures on Wednesday will surge warmer than the past several days, ahead of the cold front, with high temperatures likely approaching 80 in spots. With showers and isolated storms around, the warm temperatures will mitigated somewhat. Beyond Wednesday, some clearing is expected on Thursday before the front returns on Friday — with our area sitting along a gradient with cold air to the north and warmer air to our south. Temperatures in the 60’s will return on Friday and Saturday with a chance of showers and clouds on both days. Beyond this, things should begin to look up a bit with clearing expected behind the disturbances.

Keep reading past the break for the daily breakdown of the forecast from our Forecast Overview!

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Another cool night on the way

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The cool airmass which was in place throughout the area on Monday will remain through Monday Night and most of Tuesday, with a cool overnight period and early morning expected on Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the

NAM Model forecasting low temperatures in the 40’s inland and 50’s in New York City for the morning of Tuesday 9/25/12.

40’s once again over the interior suburbs of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Temperatures on Sunday Night/Monday morning bottomed out in the upper 30’s in some isolated locations including the Pine Barrens of Central New Jersey, the Northwest NJ Hills, and much of Interior New England. Although temperatures could end up a few degrees warmer overnight Monday Night into Tuesday, the general trend will continue to be an autumn airmass which is more cool and crisp than anything to push through the region since early last Spring. Still, a warmup in the middle of the week should serve as a reminder that we are still very early in the Autumn season, and temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80’s ahead of a cold front which will pass the area Wednesday. Some showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible with the frontal passage — with another cooldown expected thereafter, leading us to the end of the work week.

Keep reading past the break  for more information on the forecast — and a fall foliage update!

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Cooler weather on the way behind cold front

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Behind a cold front which brought significant winds and severe storms to the area on Tuesday (familiar to the front that came through a few weekends ago), cooler air will make its presence felt in the Northeast US beginning on Wednesday.

NAM-WRF Model showing low temperatures Thursday morning in the 30’s across New England, and upper 40’s to lower 50’s in parts of New Jersey and NYC.

West-northwest winds will help usher in drier air, which will be the biggest difference you’ll feel upon venturing outside during the mid-week. The humid air and gulf moisture which advected into the area on Tuesday ahead of the cold front has been swept out of the area, and the upper level trough approaching the region will bring the cooldown. Temperatures on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 40’s inland, and lower 50’s in the city and urban areas. Across parts of New England, forecast models are hinting at the potential for temperatures to drop into the 30’s under clear skies and light winds!

The cooler air will moderate with time, as we will observe a warming trend in mid-day temperatures by the end of the week. However, it looks like more upper level troughs will progress towards the region (minus the big warm ups and storms ahead of them), likely keeping the weather on the cooler side of normal through the near future.

Wednesday: Cooler, but bright sun returns. Noticeable drop in humidity and much less wind. Still a bit of a breeze out of the northwest. Highs in the mid 70’s.

Thursday: Highs barely scrape into the lower 70’s with cool northwest winds prevailing. A cool start in the morning, too, with temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Friday: Warmer than the past few days as the airmass begins to modify a bit. Highs in the middle 70’s, warmer in some spots. Light winds.