Forecast Dashboard – Page 50 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Slight Risk for severe storms today, gusty winds possible

October 2, 2018/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to form in the Northeast later this afternoon, as a low pressure system moves through Southeast Canada and parts of Northern New England. Several of the storm could be strong or severe, with the potential for torrential rain, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. While the threat for severe storms appears […]

NYC Area Forecast: Increasingly warm as large ridge returns

October 1, 2018/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Fall weather settled in to the Northeast states this week, with temperatures near seasonal averages and pleasant sky conditions. We hope you enjoyed it while it lasted, as notable warmth is set to return as the week goes on. Changes are afoot, and they will begin with clouds and showers from late Monday into Tuesday. […]

NYC Area Forecast: Pleasant, cooler weather returns this weekend

September 28, 2018/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

The Brief: Flooding rains are gone, the weather improves today. Calm, autumn-like weather this week. Warming trend begins next week with temperatures running well above normal by the mid and end of the week. Flooding rains moved through the area this morning as a low pressure system formed near the coast, and for many areas […]