Forecast Dashboard – Page 98 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Warmer Conditions Finally Take Hold, Watching This Weekend

January 8, 2018/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening! Today has been quite the interesting day, as we finally saw high temperatures lift above freezing for the first time in almost two weeks for some locations! Many states across the Eastern third of the country saw their coldest first week of January on record, which is a fitting way to bookend this […]

Light Wintry Mix Today, Some Moderation & Late Week Storm in the Northeast

January 8, 2018/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning! Hope you had a wonderful weekend! After a long duration of very cold temperatures, some pattern changes are on the way this week, finally leading to some moderation in temperature. Unfortunately this will come at a price, as unsettled and wetter weather will be arrive late in the week as well. Clouds will […]

Anomalous cold’s swan song, moderation lies ahead

January 7, 2018/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

Welcome to Five Minute Drill, our new segment where we discuss the weather without bias or favoritism on a local, regional, and national scale as the weather suggests. In the week ahead, we’re discussing the movement of bitter cold away from the Northeast states, but the prevalence of a few weak atmospheric disturbances that may […]