Posts

John Homenuk

Cool risks will return to Central US, September coming into view

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Good afternoon! We hope we caught you in the middle of a great Thursday afternoon. To piggyback a bit on our overnight and early morning thoughts, today’s midday update will focus mostly on the evolving pattern across the Central and Eastern states over the next 5 weeks — much of which has come into better view over the past 12 to 24 hours. The weather pattern, largely, has been defined by an Eastern Pacific ridge and high latitude blocking anomaly over the past few weeks, which has led to cooler temperatures and troughing in the Central States and much of the AG Belt.

This pattern has lagged into this week, as a storm system developing over the Central Plains states again drags cold air into the Northern 1/3 of the USA and eventually the Ohio and Mississippi River Valley. Minneapolis, in fact, has seen temperatures below normal averages in 13 of the last 14 days! The well-established pattern is finally forecast to become more transient, as a ridge retrogrades from the Eastern Pacific westward into the Central Pacific.

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John Homenuk

Long Range: How and why this weeks ridge positioning is critical

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You may have heard over the past few days (or weeks) that a large ridge is developing throughout the Central portions of the United States. You definitely have heard about this ridge if you have agriculture interests — which is who we’re really speaking to in this afternoon’s Long Range Update. The development and positioning of this ridge has been a hot topic for a while now, and after some forecast models suggested the ridge would encompass much of the Eastern US, it has developed well west of those regions.

But, truth be told, there is a  lot more to the forecast than “the ridge is here” or “the models were wrong”. Many professionals, no matter what sector they focus on, will tell you the same thing: Understanding the process of how things occur is more critical than almost everything else. So while we provide the forecasts each day, we like to take the time to explain why things are happening, how they happen, and how we believe they will unfold down the road.

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John Homenuk

3.25 AM LR/AG: Wet, active pattern still likely to develop

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Good morning! While Saturday mornings are a bit more quiet for our AG/Long Range friends — we didn’t forget about you! Hopefully you’re able to grab a cup of coffee and enjoy a quick discussion with us. Our article this morning will be a bit shorter, as we briefly detail some updates and the latest information we’re analyzing on the pattern ahead. The pattern change we have been discussing for a few weeks is already underway.

Yesterday we spoke at length about the upcoming pattern and why we believe it will feature more active, stormy tendencies across the Plains and the Central United States including the Southern and Central Corn Belt. Not much has changed with our current thinking moving forward over the next week or two. As we move into the upcoming weekend, multiple storm threats will have already evolved across the Central United States.

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John Homenuk

3.23 LR/AG: Active pattern with multiple severe weather chances

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A happy Thursday evening to you all! We hope you’ve had a wonderful day and are sitting down to read and chat with us regarding the upcoming long range weather pattern. We’ve got a lot to cover and will do our best to lay it out in an understandable and explanatory format. For a few weeks now, our forecasters have been discussing a change to the atmospheric pattern across the Northern Hemisphere during the end of March. These changes are still likely to occur and will lead to a much different weather pattern than the one we’ve been observing over the past few weeks.

From early March up until today, the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere has been essentially altered by the presence of high latitude blocking. This is better defined as the presence of ridging, or “blocking” high pressures in the atmosphere across parts of Canada, Greenland, and the Arctic. These are critically important because they alter the atmospheric flow in those regions and dislodge cold air, usually bottled up north, further south into the USA. The presence of this blocking has resulted in a colder pattern, particularly across the Northeast, in March.

Things are about to change.

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