Posts

John Homenuk

There are no highly accurate guides to winter in August

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We like Slate. Their pieces are innovative, their writing is professional, and their staff is talented. The research they conduct is often top-notch, and their social media presence is impressive.

We don’t like the piece they published earlier today. Neither should any meteorologist, professional forecaster, hobbyist, or reader, for that matter. The article,  A Very Early Yet Highly Accurate Guide to This Coming Winter is already irresponsible in its title. The piece goes on to elaborate on the fact that, due to the increasing confidence of an El Nino, forecasters can see what’s coming this upcoming winter with high confidence. From California to the Pacific Northwest and Urban Northeast, the article proclaims that the forecast certainty is higher than ever. Not surprisingly, it also calls for snowier than normal conditions here in the Northeast.

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John Homenuk

Perseid meteor shower peaks tonight, here’s how to see it

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The annual Perseid meteor shower peaks tonight into the early morning hours of Thursday, and astronomers are suggesting the potential for up to 100 meteors per hour.

There’s something humbling about laying in the grass and watching meteors streak throughout the night sky. The Perseid meteor shower provides arguably the best show of meteors in the night sky each year. Its annual occurrence during warm summer nights makes it easily the most comfortable meteor shower to watch of the bunch of “major” showers, many of which fall during the colder winter months. This year, a very dim moon will make viewing even more ideal during the peak of the meteor shower.

Why is the moonlight so important? To put it simply, it upstages the light of the meteors streaking throughout the sky. When the moon is full, you may still see meteors — but the smaller, dimmer activity (which is typically more frequent than the bright ones) is blocked out by the bright light of the moon in the sky. This year, the thin crescent moon is not expected to interfere at all.

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John Homenuk

Coastal storm expected to skirt offshore this weekend

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This mornings operations at the forecast desk could almost be mistaken for mid-winter. All kidding aside, forecast models have jumped around over the past several days in regards to the track and intensity of a coastal storm system which is now expected to pass just barely south and east of our area on Friday. The storm itself is forming due to an energetic mid level atmospheric disturbance, which will drive southeastward into the Mid Atlantic states later today and Friday. This will aid in the development of a surface low pressure system, and plenty of atmospheric moisture will help develop precipitation across the Mid Atlantic States.

Perhaps most notable is the fact that this atmospheric energy is undercutting a very fast atmospheric flow to its north, over the Great Lakes and New England. This means that the storm system won’t have much room to move northward — and its development will be shunted to the east instead of expanding northward and westward. Fast northwesterly winds aloft will keep the pattern moving, especially over New England. So the low pressure system at the surface will respond accordingly, developing from the Mid Atlantic and then seaward toward the Western Atlantic Ocean.

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