Posts

John Homenuk

Warm, but unsettled weather this week

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Often, meteorologists pay close attention to the progression of the pattern very early in the Spring season. Although not backed by any statical research, it is often found that the patterns and trends in regards to frontal boundaries and airmass progression early in the Spring season can foreshadow how those very same boundaries will behave later in the season. This year has been no exception.

Early this Spring, warm fronts struggled to move northward from the Mid Atlantic, yielding instead to the cooler ocean waters and troughiness to our north and east. This very same thing occurred this past weekend, as warm front struggled northward from the Washington, DC area. Additionally, backdoor cold fronts have had plenty of push towards our area from New England — with marine air overtaking the pattern. This very same thing will occur on Tuesday, temporarily pushing out the warm airmass in place on Monday.

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John Homenuk

Backdoor cold front season is here, what’s the deal?

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Each spring we emerge from a long cold winter with aspirations of 70 degree temperatures, a cool breeze and plenty of sun.  It rarely works out that way. Whether it be an upper level low, a stalled cold front, or a backdoor frontal boundary there are plenty of meteorological events that could be to blame for a colder and damp spring in this area. The fact of the matter is, our location during a transition season (fall, spring) is a difficult place to be. The changing and morphing wavelengths of the mid and upper level ridges and troughs mean the potential for cutoff lows, and the colder ocean waters this time of year especially will wreak havoc on any warmup.

This time around, we have a significant low pressure system moving through the Central United States. Meteorology tells us that a warm front should be surging north from the Mid Atlantic states into New England as this low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes, with southerly winds ramping up warm air south of the warm front. But where is the warm front, and why hasn’t it made progress north? The answer lies in the setup both aloft and at the surface, and it leads to the development of a backdoor front which pushed the warm air back to our south. While maybe not a classic backdoor cold front, which often sweeps out very warm air and brings low clouds and fog with it, the warm front at the end of this week is stuck well back to our south as cold, marine air is entrenched over New England.

An illustration of a backdoor cold front, showing the colder marine air moving southwest from New England.

An illustration of a backdoor cold front, showing the colder marine air moving southwest from New England.

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John Homenuk

April off to a wonderful start with warming trend

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Maybe it’s best that we just forget about March as a whole. The only people who would’ve enjoyed March 2014 are those who enjoy cold temperatures and no snow — a rare breed — and so most were lift disappointed and chilly. Spring got off to a slow start, with temperatures running 4 to 6 degrees below average during the month of March. And there was almost no snow to speak of in New York City despite multiple chances for accumulating snowfall. April, on the contrary, will get off to a great start. Temperatures in the mid 50’s to near 60 on Tuesday will mark the beginning of a warming trend which will continue into the middle of the work week.

High temperatures by Wednesday should eclipse the lower 60’s in many locations, as westerly winds and warming mid level temperatures with full sunshine allow for the warm air currently over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to advect eastward. Par for the course this time of year, things will be a bit cooler near the area beaches and shores. Despite the westerly winds, cold ocean waters make it very difficult for coastal locations to stay warm throughout the day in April. By the end of the week, the forecast gets a little bit more dicey with an approaching warm front and the potential for some backdoor-front action from New England.

HRRR model showing high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees west of NYC on Tuesday.

HRRR model showing high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees west of NYC on Tuesday.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Clouds break, unsettled trend continues

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Mostly cloudy skies, including the presence of drizzle and some fog, hampered the forecast for the majority of Thursday. Although temperatures still reached into the 70’s and near 80 with humidity on the rise, the sun was absent — a poor beach day for those who are still clinging to the last few available this summer. The humidity and mugginess in the air may have left Thursday feeling somewhat uncomfortable. A weak disturbance will pass through the area overnight tonight, and with a backdoor cold front in the area a few storms are possible over the far interior suburbs and Northwest PA. Generally, however, dry conditions are expected through the majority of the area this evening. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the 60’s throughout most of the area tonight.

Water Vapor satellite imagery and observations from 6pm on 8/29/13

Water Vapor satellite imagery and observations from 6pm on 8/29/13

The backdoor front will wash out a bit by Friday, and with the easterly flow (which caused the clouds/fog on Thursday) weakening and backing to a south-westerly flow, we are expecting a warmer day with more sun. Highs should top out in the lower 80’s in most areas. The weekend looks to remain unsettled, with a chance of storms each day — fairly difficult to pinpoint, but no threats of widespread heavy rain. Saturday looks like the winner of the weekend, with highs in the 80’s and a chance of storms mainly relegated to the western suburbs. Storm chances increase both Sunday and Monday before a cold front crosses the area.

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