Posts

John Homenuk

PM Zone Update: Blizzard Watches issued ahead of significant storm

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Confidence continues to increase on the development of a significant snowstorm early next week throughout all of our zones. As mentioned in detail over the past several days, two disturbances will drive southward into the Central United States late this weekend and early next week, in response to the development of a blocking ridge in the higher latitudes. These disturbances will interact and phase over the Mississippi River Valley and parts of the Eastern US early next week.

As the two disturbances interact, a strong low pressure system will develop across the Southeast US coast, shifting northwards up the Eastern Seaboard. The exact track of the system is still yet to be determined, and will greatly impact the ultimate impacts that the storm brings our area. However, the envelope of possible solutions continues to tighten — with most solutions impacting all of our zones at least moderate to significantly.

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John Homenuk

January 2016 Blizzard draws parallels to famous ’96 storm

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We’ve all heard it before: “There will never be another storm like the Blizzard of ’96”.

And then there was.

This past weekends blizzard will be remembered for many things. 30 inches of snow at Kennedy Airport, drifts above windows and along sides of homes, strong wind gusts and damaging coastal flooding (yes, Gov. Christie). Meteorologically, however, it will stand as a testament to the fact that analogs, no matter how wild they may seem, can be a tremendously useful tool in forecasting.

During the medium range period on forecast models, specifically between days 3 and 5, analog tools and algorithms were continuously signaling the Blizzard of 1996 (January 6-8, 1996) as a tremendously high percentage analog. The evolution of the storm system at multiple levels of the atmosphere was comparable to what forecast models were indicating. And as it turned out, the Blizzard of 2016 would have a very similar evolution and outcome to the famed ’96 Blizzard.

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John Homenuk

Significant winter storm to impact the area through Saturday

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A strong low pressure system, developing off the coast of the Carolinas, will move northward on Friday and Saturday while developing into a significant Nor’Easter. This storm system will move to a position off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday, pushing bands of heavy snow into New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island. Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate across Southern and Central New Jersey during the evening on Friday, with travel becoming extremely difficult and dangerous on Saturday.

The northern extent of the bands of heavy snow remain in question, with a tremendous cutoff in snowfall expected from south to north. Forecast models indicate the potential for gradient of almost 18 inches of snow in less than 25 miles near the latitude of New York City. Confidence is much higher in prolific snowfalls to the south of New York City, across Southern and Central New Jersey.

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John Homenuk

Here’s why we aren’t expecting blockbuster snow totals in NYC

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Much has been made over the past few days in regards to the potential for a major snowstorm in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast this weekend. With up to two feet of snow (possibly more in banding) expected in the Washington DC area, and the storm forecast to move at least slightly north up the Mid Atlantic coast, there have been an increasing amount of forecasts calling for prolific snowfall amounts in New York City. But forecast models over the last day or so have again begun trending southward, with a very sharp gradient in precipitation expected near the New York City Area.

In fact, further investigation of the changes on forecast models reveal several atmospheric developments that are disconcerting for big snowfall — and it seems likely that New York City will avoid the blockbuster snowfall amounts at this point. Here’s why:

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