Posts

John Homenuk

Significant winter storm begins, widespread impacts likely

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Snowstorm Impact | 8/10 (Severe)

3:00pm Update: The winter storm is continuing to come together across the Northern Mid Atlantic. Snowfall rates have increased area-wide and will continue to become more steady, as banding in the storm system develops. The dynamic aspect of the system is still ongoing, transferring the coastal low that will become dominant. As this occurs, bands of heavier snow should pivot inland towards NJ, NYC, and Long Island.

So far, around 4.5″ of snow has fallen at Central Park, and a similar amount at Newark. Some areas are observing local differences, which is typical. But with heavier/steadier snow rates continuing and sunset approaching, we expect accumulations to become more widespread, even on roadways throughout the region. The latest radar shows the bands well, especially over Northern NJ and NYC over the past 30 minutes.

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Miguel Pierre

Monday Briefing: Blizzard in the Plains, unsettled weather East

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Good morning, everyone! A new week begins today with much warmer weather in the Eastern United States, particularly the Northeast states where temperatures are running well above average. This is obviously a major change compared to what has been experienced there over the past several weeks. Much of this can be attributed to warmer, Pacific air that has become entrenched in the Eastern United States over the past few days. Temperatures are expected to run 10-20 degrees above normal averages on both Monday and Tuesday!

Meanwhile, the weather will become increasingly unsettled. Increasing moisture and lift in the atmosphere will lead to drizzle and unsettled conditions across the Eastern United States. This issue will be exacerbated by the presence of a strong low pressure system, which is leading to the development of a blizzard across the Northern Plains. The low pressure is bringing warm air to the East, but much more significant weather out west – where very heavy snow and significant travel impacts are anticipated.

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Steven Copertino

UPDATE: Significant Winter Storm Aimed At The East Coast, Dangerous Cold Friday & Saturday

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Good evening! 

Today has been yet another in an impressive stretch of days below-freezing across the majority of the Northeast! Conditions were mainly calm, with patches of mid to high level clouds racing from southwest to northeast due to a strong/developing jet stream over the Northeast. An area of high pressure has been quickly moving offshore, which has shifted winds to the south over portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. This subtle change was enough to bring in temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s for most of the NYC metro area, with 30’s further to the south. As we head into the night, we expect cloud cover to gradually increase as the large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean begins to expand substantially to the west and ushers in some mid-lower level clouds. Southerly low level flow will keep conditions a bit warmer than the past few nights, but expect lows to stay in the lower to middle 20’s over the immediate NYC metro, with upper teens likely to the north and west. Things should stay dry for most of the area up until midnight, when some initial light to moderate snow may begin to nose into the southern portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

QUICK LINKS: Latest Snowfall Forecast | Latest Video Discussion

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John Homenuk

Where did New York City’s blizzard go?

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Let’s cut straight to the point here: Our forecast snowfall amounts in and around New York City were too high. Our snowfall forecast, which by the night before the storm had settled into the 15-18″ range for the metro area, ended up too high by 8-10″, which as you may assume is a much larger spread than we are comfortable with. While the forecast did verify very nicely in many other areas, the I-95 corridor was an area where verification was specifically poor.

Before starting an organized mob with pitchforks and torches to storm your local meteorological office, we’re going to attempt to provide some perspective today. The reality of it is, these kinds of blown forecasts are difficult for us all. The general public — and our clients — planned ahead based on our forecast amounts, and frustration was very high when they didn’t work out. Accordingly, our team worked tirelessly to get the forecast right, spending countless hours pouring over data and pinpointing intricate processes, and getting it wrong was a frustrating and humbling experience.

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