Cooler risks likely to continue into medium and long range
Much has been made over the past week or two in regards to a gradual warmup across the United States as we approach the middle of the month of August. With seven days of the month gone by, a notable breadth of cooler than normal air has spread throughout the United States. Despite the persistent forecasts for ridging and higher pressure to develop, an active and progressive pattern has remained in place, keeping things cooler and wetter on average.
As we approach the middle of the month of August, medium range forecast models continue to indicate that the risks for cooler than normal air will continue. Understanding exactly how and why these risks are developing will be a critical component to the forecast moving forward; both in terms of understanding the risk itself, and timing exactly when it will end and a transition to warmth will occur.