Posts

John Homenuk

Confidence increasing in development of cold, active pattern in Eastern US

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Good morning and happy Wednesday, everyone! Anomalous warmth has currently spread across a large majority of the United States, well forecast in is breadth and timing, but impressive nonetheless. Since the beginning of the week, much of the Midwestern United States has been blanketed by temperatures several degrees above normal averages for this time of year. The mid and upper level ridge in the atmosphere that is responsible for this warmth will continue its trek eastward over the next few days, allowing warmer temperatures to gradually move towards the Eastern United States.

As we speak, thousands of miles away, in the North Pacific Ocean, a major change to the hemispheric weather pattern is underway. This fundamental change will mark the end of the anomalous warmth across the aforementioned regions, working in tandem with several other global circulations to support the development of an anomalously cold pattern. In fact, by the middle of next week, temperatures will fall well below average across a large portion of the Mississippi River Valley and East Coast. This will obviously have a large impact on the markets, and Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days are expected to quickly jump above the 10 and 30 year averages. Lets break down why this is happening and how we can expect things to evolve.

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John Homenuk

Signals strengthening for Mid December pattern change

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Good afternoon! After a long and relaxing Thanksgiving weekend, the meteorological community almost always looks ahead to the weeks to come as December quickly approaches What lies ahead are some of the more critical weeks for many sectors, including construction, energy, natural gas and agriculture just to name a few. The weather pattern that occurs during this time frame is often critical to the winter forecast – not just in the short term, but also in the weeks beyond.

As you may recall, when we released our Winter Forecast in early November, we spoke of the December pattern as “higher than normal” confidence. The anticipated shot of cooler than normal air and episodes of higher latitude blocking have occurred, and we now approach an anticipated period of moderation. What happens beyond this, however, is the key piece to a forecast that features a flip to colder than normal temperatures across the United States. The evolution of the pattern throughout the hemisphere is beginning to fall into place – so lets discuss!

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John Homenuk

Volatile pattern arrives with multiple storm chances across US

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The days of prolonged warm and benign weather have begun to come to a close across the Central and Eastern USA as we begin the work week, as a volatile weather pattern begins to set in. Happy Monday! After discussing impending changes for several days, and looking to the Pacific Ocean for signals as to when and why the changes would occur, they will finally arrive – with a dramatic pattern change especially across the Central United States.

As a large ridge builds along the Western USA shores, in response to a retrograding Pacific Ocean pattern, colder air will surge south into the Central United States by way of a deep, anomalous trough sliding southward from Canada. Air temperatures will fall much below normal across the majority of these regions as the trough shifts southward, and a low pressure system will develop from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes later this week.

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John Homenuk

October Outlook: Why anomalous warmth could return

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Several daily temperature records were broken over the past several days throughout the Eastern United States, particularly this weekend when temperatures reached into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. Much of this warmth was aided and enhanced by the development of a large, sprawling mid and upper level atmospheric ridge. This ridge acted to enhance the flow of a warm, southwesterly flow, which effectively advected warmth into the agriculture regions and eventually into the Northeast as well.

In the near future, a potent cold front is expected to gradually shift east/southeastward into the Great Lakes, eventually making headway towards the Eastern United States. This front will provide some temporary relief in terms of temperature for harvesting in the near future, and will have many thinking that fall weather is finally on the way — but not so fast. There is more to the forecast, suggesting that anomalous warmth could return very soon.

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