Posts

Miguel Pierre

2/22 AM All Zones: Warmer Temperatures…T-Storms With Heavy Rain Possible Saturday

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More unseasonable mild temperatures return again today with rising mid-level heights and southwest winds. Low clouds this morning, will break for some sunshine this afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s over many parts of the region.

It will remain mild into tonight. Low temperatures with a southwest flow will only be lower to middle 40s near the coast and upper 30s inland. Some low clouds and patchy fog could also develop later tonight into early tomorrow morning.

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Miguel Pierre

Wednesday Overview: More Heavy Rain and Possible Thunderstorms Through Tonight

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A large complex storm system continues to impact the region today. Some patchy and dense fog from early this morning has now given away more rainfall as another warm front moving slowly northward over the region this afternoon. Rain will likely fall heavy at times, leading to some minor flooding in poor drainage or low-lying areas. Despite the rain, temperatures will gradually rise into upper 50s to middle 60s over the region this evening, winds becoming more southerly.

Then a cold front will begin approaching the region early tonight. Models show more lift and instability increasing ahead of this front the during the evening hours. This might a support a line of  thunderstorms that could contain very heavy downpours and some gusty winds later this evening. Rainfall totals could exceed over 1.00″ again. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts over Central and Southern NJ this evening. Some other highlights over the next few days:

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John Homenuk

Multiple rounds of heavy rain likely in the Northeast this week

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An expansive and multi-faceted storm system will develop throughout the United States during the early and middle part of the upcoming week. Multiple pieces of energy will move from the Plains through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley’s and eventually towards the Northeast — each disturbance aiding in the development of heavy rain over a relatively large area. While wintry precipitation and severe weather are both possible in the Central United States, the main focus in the Northeast will be periods of heavy rain — much needed in many areas.

While uncertainty does exist given the multiple disturbances and intricate interactions between fronts, confidence has increased in the heavy rain threat over the past 24 to 48 hours. Forecast model and ensemble guidance has come into much better agreement on the storms overall evolution, with two separate rounds of rainfall likely in the Northeast US from Tuesday through Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Analysis: Heavy rain, storm potential Friday morning

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A mid level atmospheric disturbance will approach the area from the southwest later Thursday Night into Friday morning, bringing with it plenty of tropical moisture and lift. As the disturbance shifts toward the Mid Atlantic states and eventually off the coast, a surface low pressure area will develop in the same adjacent areas. This will enhance lift in the atmosphere — allowing heavy rain to develop just to the north of the low pressure area.

Within an airmass characterized by precipitable water values over 2.50″, this lift will support the development of heavy, torrential rains from Thursday Night into Friday. Movement from southwest to northeast of heavy rain, and embedded thunderstorms, is anticipated. Exactly where the heaviest bands fall will depend on a few things; namely convection, and placement of the best mid level lift and vertical velocity.

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