Posts

John Homenuk

Significant winter storm to impact the area through Saturday

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A strong low pressure system, developing off the coast of the Carolinas, will move northward on Friday and Saturday while developing into a significant Nor’Easter. This storm system will move to a position off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday, pushing bands of heavy snow into New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island. Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate across Southern and Central New Jersey during the evening on Friday, with travel becoming extremely difficult and dangerous on Saturday.

The northern extent of the bands of heavy snow remain in question, with a tremendous cutoff in snowfall expected from south to north. Forecast models indicate the potential for gradient of almost 18 inches of snow in less than 25 miles near the latitude of New York City. Confidence is much higher in prolific snowfalls to the south of New York City, across Southern and Central New Jersey.

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John Homenuk

Here’s why we aren’t expecting blockbuster snow totals in NYC

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Much has been made over the past few days in regards to the potential for a major snowstorm in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast this weekend. With up to two feet of snow (possibly more in banding) expected in the Washington DC area, and the storm forecast to move at least slightly north up the Mid Atlantic coast, there have been an increasing amount of forecasts calling for prolific snowfall amounts in New York City. But forecast models over the last day or so have again begun trending southward, with a very sharp gradient in precipitation expected near the New York City Area.

In fact, further investigation of the changes on forecast models reveal several atmospheric developments that are disconcerting for big snowfall — and it seems likely that New York City will avoid the blockbuster snowfall amounts at this point. Here’s why:

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John Homenuk

Major storm likely this weekend, but uncertainties continue

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Forecast models continue to slowly converge on the overall evolution of a large, powerful coastal storm which will evolve near the East Coast of the United States later this week. The agreement in regards to the storm development, on almost all global models and ensembles, is quite remarkable for this lead time. Almost every global model shows the storm system developing through the Mississippi River Valley, and eventually re-forming off the East Coast, moving northward to a position off the Delmarva. The exact track and intricacies of the atmospheric setup, however, create continued uncertainties in regards to the storms impact in our local area.

The setup actually begins to unfold later this evening, as a strong Pacific disturbance comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest. This disturbance is forecast, by all models, to drop southeastward through the Rockies, eventually to a position near the Central and Southern Plains states during the middle part of the week. During this time, another strong northern jet stream disturbance is forecast to race southeastward through the Dakotas, eventually phasing with the Pacific disturbance as it moves toward the Mississippi River.

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