Posts

John Homenuk

Tropical moisture could spoil weekend

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The pleasant, dry and less humid weather which has settled into the area during the middle of this week, however enjoyable, looks to be short lived. Forecast models have been consistent in taking a weak (possibly tropical) system with an impressive amount of low level moisture, and tracking it from the Gulf of Mexico up along the East Coast. With the weak shortwave being scooped up by a progressive trough over the Ohio Valley, a surface low is forecast to develop and move up the East Coast beginning Thursday and continuing into early Saturday.

The system in the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to develop into a tropical entity by some models, is struggling amidst strong upper level winds. But it still may develop into a weak system before ejecting north and east and being absorbed into the mid level flow. The National Hurricane Center suggests the system has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system.

Visible satellite imagery of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico on the morning of June 5th, 2013.

Visible satellite imagery of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico on the morning of June 5th, 2013.

The result, in terms of sensible weather for our area, will be clouds and showers beginning late Thursday and continuing through at least the first part of the weekend. The exact track of the surface low and interactions aloft will determine where the heaviest rain falls, but needless to say periods of rain are likely with the potential for some thunderstorms as well. Late Thursday into early Saturday in particular look to feature the most unsettled weather. Things look to clear out a bit during the day on Saturday, so Sunday could be salvaged if the timing holds up.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Wonderful Wednesday on the way

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A pleasant Tuesday, which featured lower dew points and comfortable temperatures in the mid 70’s — as well as a light northwest breeze and plenty of sun — will give way to a gorgeous evening and overnight period. Wednesday will be a hint warmer, with calm winds that will quietly shift from northwest to southwest. You’ll be hard pressed to find a more comfortable two day stretch in the first week of June!

Tonight: Clear, with low temperatures in the mid 50’s. A bit cooler near the shore and away from the city. Light north winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour, so crack a window and give the air conditioning a break tonight.

Wednesday: It doesn’t get much better than this. Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70’s in the city, a hair cooler near the beaches and inland. North winds will flip to south-southwest by afternoon. Just a few clouds after noon.

Tropical moisture may mean a wet weekend: Forecast models have been persistent in showing the potential for widespread clouds, showers and a period of moderate to heavy rain this weekend. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may eventually weaken and head up the East Coast while being scooped up by a progressive trough. The result would be a weak low pressure system tracking near the East Coast. Unsettled weather looks likely from late Thursday into Saturday, but the amount of rain remains in question.

NAM model showing precipitatable water values approaching 2.0 this weekend as tropical moisture surges up the East Coast.

NAM model showing precipitatable water values approaching 2.0 this weekend as tropical moisture surges up the East Coast.

El Reno tornado becomes widest ever recorded: Our article from earlier today detailed the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado which today was upgraded to an EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The tornado featured winds of 296 miles per hour (as measured by mobile doppler radar) and was 2.6 miles wide — a new record.

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Cooler, pleasant weather behind cold front

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The warm and humid airmass from this past weekend is a distant memory this afternoon, as cooler air with lower dew points has settled into the area. A refreshing northwest breeze will continue for the remainder of the day with high temperatures around average in the mid 70’s. The trend is expected to continue through the middle of the week, with more sun and slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday — but not hot or humid at all.

Not all of the news is good, however. The forecast takes a bit of an unsettled turn by late Thursday and Friday and may become quite ugly by the weekend as a tropical moisture feed extends up the East Coast of the United States. Forecast models are showing a trough sinking through the Ohio Valley and Northeast by the weekend, with showers becoming likely with periods of heavy rain also a possibility if a weak surface low pressure system can form offshore.

We’ll keep a close eye on it as the week goes on, but for now enjoy the beautiful weather! Remember to check our social media accounts for frequent updates.

PM Update: Scattered storms, unsettled Monday

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After a weekend of heat (temperatures over 90 degrees since last Thursday in many locations), scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening throughout the area. The main organized severe weather threat remained to our north, over New England, where better shear allowed for more widespread organized severe thunderstorms. Despite plenty of sun and instability in our area, storms have had trouble developing and becoming organized. Forecast models, however, are insistent that storms — and areas of steady rain — will develop from Sunday evening through Monday as the front slows near the area.

The unsettled weather, with showers and clouds, is expected to continue into Monday as the warm and humid airmass gets washed away. The news is not all bad, however — after the front passes Monday evening, a seasonal airmass will move into the area. This will bring with it the return of highs in the mid 70’s and lower humidity with pleasant weather in the forecast through the upcoming work week.

Things will gradually warm up again by the end of the week, with warm air advection bringing a chance of some showers into the forecast as well. Stay tuned for more updates and details as the week moves along. Have a great Sunday evening!