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John Homenuk

Labor Day weekend forecast takes a pleasant turn

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A forecast which initially looked somewhat dreary, with clouds and thunderstorms widespread, has taken a positive turn on the upcoming Labor Day Weekend. Forecast models have converged on a solution which will bring multiple perturbations in the mid level flow to the north and west of our area, instead of over our area, from Friday through Sunday. And while the exact solution remains uncertain, the idea that the disturbances will pass north and west of us is gaining traction — and is a very positive sign for those of us looking to spend some time outside this weekend.

What we will first deal with is the passage of a frontal zone, bringing scattered showers and storms to the area early in the morning hours on Thursday. These will clear fairly quickly, moving seaward by Thursday morning’s commute. Westerly winds will have built back in by that time, and decreasing low level temperatures will keep surface temperatures nearer to 80 degrees when compared to the 90 degree temperatures on Wednesday. The air will feel less thick and humid as well.

NAM model showing highs barely reaching 80 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

NAM model showing highs barely reaching 80 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Warmup midweek, unsettled weather ahead

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Monday was the first in a set of what will likely be three summery days — with high temperatures in the 80’s and a warm sun. Autumn-like weather has taken its grip on the areas weather over the last week or so with pleasant days and cool nights. But the below normal temperatures will take a hiatus, however brief it may be, during the next few days. A building ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere will aid in the development of a southwesterly flow, which will yield increasing mid level temperatures and warmer surface temperatures as well.

High temperatures on Tuesday will reach into the upper 80’s, feeling a bit warmer than Monday. Drier winds, as opposed to the onshore flow which has kept things cooler for the past few days, will make the air feel even pleasantly warm. Humidity will begin to increase as well, but won’t become noticeably uncomfortable until Wednesday. This will signal the approach of a frontal boundary later Wednesday, which will eventually bring an end to the warmer and more summery weather.

NAM model forecasting temperatures in the 90's on Wednesday afternoon with approaching thunderstorms. (Temperatures top left, precipitation top right).

NAM model forecasting temperatures in the 90’s on Wednesday afternoon with approaching thunderstorms. (Temperatures top left, precipitation top right).

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