Posts

John Homenuk

Spring begins Friday…with another snowstorm

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A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere shifting from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast will force the development of a surface low pressure system, which will move off the East Coast on Friday. Terminology like this has become all too familiar over the past several months, hasn’t it? Nevertheless, this surface low will develop close to the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, aiding in the development of enhanced mid and upper level atmospheric lift for precipitation. With cold air in place over New England, anchored by a high pressure shifting northeastward, the result will be: More snow.

Snow is expected to spread from southwest to northeast throughout the area on Friday morning. Initially light, it will quickly increase in intensity as a band of enhanced lift moves through the area. Moderate snow is expected to continue through Friday afternoon and evening, when it will accumulate up to 3 to 5 inches throughout the area. The higher amounts of that tier will be more common in bands of heavier precipitation — where heavy snow continues for prolonged periods of time.

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John Homenuk

Solar storm causes dazzling aurora display

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A large solar storm, owing to a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun, caused a dazzling display of Aurora Borealis on Tuesday evening throughout the high and mid latitudes. More commonly known as the Northern Lights, the phenomenal display was one of the best in recent memory — with the color along the horizon visible as far south as Pennsylvania and parts of Long Island. Thousands ran to their cameras and took incredible long-exposure shots of the colors, which danced throughout the northern sky as a result of the aforementioned geomagnetic storm.

The aurora is visible as a result of energized solar particles flying toward Earth from the sun. When they reach Earth, the Earths magnetic field and atmosphere react. These energized particles “excite” atoms and molecules — causing them to light up and create the amazing colors we see. Yes, this is a “bare minimum” explanation, but we’ll keep things simple for now. The solar storm on Tuesday was quite strong — one of the strongest in recent memory with direct impacts on earth. The kP index, used to measure the impacts of these storms on Earth, rose to 8 for a prolonged period of time — which is quite anomalous. Typically, values of 7 or higher are required for our area to see visible aurora.

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John Homenuk

Not done yet: Light snow likely on Friday

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I can almost hear the collective groan of thousands throughout the New Jersey and New York City area. Yes, snow is returning to the forecast and it will bring the potential for a few inches of snow on this coming Friday. A low pressure system approaching from the Ohio Valley will move through the Mid Atlantic states on Friday, spreading moisture north of it into the Northern Mid Atlantic states. As moisture surges north into the cold sector, snow will develop within a small axis from West to East on Friday.

While the low pressure system is fairly weak, and passing well to our south, the increase in moisture and lift should be just enough to allow for snow to develop. Light snow is expected as early as Friday morning, especially over Western parts of the forecast area. With increased lift for precipitation, steady snow is expected during the day on Friday. The low pressure system will eventually shift offshore, allowing for lightening precipitation and clearing overnight Friday into Saturday.

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John Homenuk

Active, transitional pattern this week

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Despite that fact that we continue to work farther and farther away from Winter with each passing day, the pattern over the next week will feature a transitional — and colder than normal — airmass on multiple days. As we mentioned last week, the presence of high latitude blocking will be the main culprit in driving cold air southward from Canada into the Northern 1/3 of the United States. Despite a changing sun angle and nearly completely melted snowpack, the potential for cold and at least some snow is anticipated to continue for the next 7 to 10 days. This week will feature a transition from a benign pattern into a more stormy one.

After  a warm and pleasant day on Monday, a frontal boundary is expected to pass the area on Tuesday with blustery winds and showers which may end as snow showers throughout the area. This will all be owing to the southward extension of a lobe of the Polar Vortex, which will be elongating and setting up shop over Southeast Canada. Very cold air — 850mb temperatures of nearly -30 C — will be bottled up just to the north of New England. And frontal boundaries will progressively seep this air southward into our area at times.

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