North and West of 287: Not just urban legend?
“The best snowfall accumulations should be relegated to areas North and West of 287 in New Jersey.”
For anyone who has been around meteorology, public forecasting, or snowfall forecasting in the media and television over the last 10 or more years, this has been a phrase which will ring many bells and bring back many memories. The media, news outlets, and other forecasters have used the saying of sorts as a way to discern where the higher snowfall totals may occur over the hills and elevated areas of interior Northwest New Jersey. Whether it be via cooler temperatures at the surface, aloft, or a longer duration event in general, it seems that areas North and West of 287 often benefit from their location and elevation in winter storms.
With winter only a few short months away, and the first murmurs beginning in our offices about winter forecasting and seasonal forecasting, the saying brought up a few questions — and the potential for some research. Is “North and West of 287” a generalized phrase, or can it actually be used to differentiate between parts of New Jersey which receive more snow than others? We took a look into the location of I-287 in New Jersey compared to storm specific, seasonal, and long term snowfall averages and found some very surprising results.