Posts

Miguel Pierre

Jose Impacts on the New England & Mid-Atlantic Coasts

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Happy Tuesday! Hurricane Jose remains well offshore. But will still have some relatively minor impacts over coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next few days or so. Meanwhile, more attention has turned to Hurricane Maria which has become extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane, as moved over Dominica last night. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands may take a direct hit from by Wednesday. But this article, will mostly discuss impacts from Jose

Based on latest observations and model guidance, Hurricane Jose will be tracking further southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, than previously expected. So only some outer fringe rain and wind impacts are expected for most coastal areas of between the Delmarva and New England through Wednesday. Showers and breezy conditions are generally expected, as outer rainbands from Jose push inland from off the ocean. Some locally heavier downpours with possibly higher wind gusts to around 40mph, especially along the New Jersey, Delaware and Long Island shores. But true tropical storm conditions aren’t largely anticipated.

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Miguel Pierre

Unsettled Weather Today, More Pleasant This Weekend, Watching Jose for Next Week

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Good morning! More unsettled weather is likely today. First, some areas of patchy fog will clear out later this morning. Then a large mid-upper trough over OH/TN Valley will be moving eastward  with more cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms today over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions today. Shortwave energy and wind fields with the trough will gradually be weakening, as it approaches the coastline. So we don’t anticipated any more organized convection or severe weather. For most part today is just looking more dreary, more warm and muggy conditions.

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Miguel Pierre

Hurricane Irma a Major Threat to the Southeast US, Cool Weather for the Northeast

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Happy Wednesday! Some unsettled weather continues for the Northeast today. Then improving weather is likely for the rest of the week. But it will feel more likely early Autumn. Hurricane Irma will become a major threat to the Southeast US this weekend and early next week. More detailed analysis on Irma’s potential future is below.

First for today, a few weak waves of low pressure running will be running along a slow-moving cold front. This will result in multiple rounds of showers and/or t-storms will continue moving through parts of the Northeast, especially near I-95 corridor and coastal plain through much of tonight. Instability is marginal at best. So no severe weather hazards are anticipated. However, some locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible with high precipitable water values over 1.50″.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Long Range: A Look at the Western Hemispheric Pattern and Tropics in August

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Late last week, we saw our second heat wave of the summer over many parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. It may have appeared to some people, that may be we have turned the tide toward more hot and humid pattern for the rest of the summer. But this pattern much cooler and unsettled this week. Now there are increasing indications from several climate phenomena and long-range ensemble guidance of major pattern change now occurring over the Pacific Basin, that will support a cooler pattern, for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, at least the first couple weeks of August.

Overall Pattern

On the long-range ensemble guidance, the atmospheric pattern changes start out in the Pacific. A large trough will be over parts Southeast Asia and Western Pacific and in turn support a ridge near or just south of the Aleutian Islands and a large trough or upper-level low over more of the Gulf of Alaska and Northeast Pacific. This North Pacific pattern overall will continue to support more profound heat ridge in parts of the Western and Central US. More ridging over Greenland/Davis Strait will also result in a more negative NAO pattern. This entire pattern throughout the Western Hemisphere will on average support deeper troughiness in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and stronger Western Atlantic ridge to build over next couple weeks. But we do know ensembles and weeklies in general in the super long-ranges are less reliable. So what climate phenomena is potentially influence this pattern?

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