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Live Blog: High impact coastal storm through Thursday

February 12, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

A high impact storm system will affect the area beginning later Wednesday evening, and continuing throughout much of Thursday. Significant amounts of snow, periods of rain and sleet, gusty winds and coastal flooding are all expected hazards. Wednesday night a strong storm system will develop off the Carolina coast, owing to a powerful mid and upper level trough and shortwave. Phasing disturbances aloft will eventually reach the East Coast, which will help shift the coastal system north and eventually northeastward from the Mid Atlantic to the shores of New England.

With significant impacts expected, we have opened up our live blog for discussion throughout the overnight period beginning at 7:00pm February 12th, 2014. Throughout this time, our meteorologists will check in and continue to update the live blog (and the website products, of course) with information. Even better, the live blog will feature our staff’s thoughts on the event as it is unfolding. This way, you’re never in the dark when it comes to the forecast or the storm which is evolving. Keep it right here tonight and during the storm on Thursday. We have included some handy links to our recently issued products below, followed by the live blog below that. Note: We are using a brand new software, so bear with us if there are any kinks (and let us know, if you can). If we have any significant problems, we will revert to our basic text update system. (Click read more if you are on the homepage to see the live blog)

Week begins with transient weather

January 12, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It’s almost as if “roller coaster” has become an insufficient way to describe the pattern changes that our area has observed over the past several weeks. This past 5-7 day period was no different, as we transitioned from the Polar Vortex with sub-zero wind chills to a strong southerly flow and temperatures in the 60’s. After a cold frontal passage on Saturday evening, however, things have settled down a bit. Monday will end up relatively benign with temperatures slightly above average — and minimal precipitation.

The changes begin by late Monday, however, as increasingly thick clouds will begin to stream into the area from the southwest. A mid level disturbance approaching the area from the Mississippi Valley will be moving quickly off to the northeast, and minimal amplification is expected with no significant low pressure system. Nevertheless, unsettled weather with clouds and showers will grab the reigns of the forecast from Monday Night into Tuesday. Above normal temperatures will eventually be shunted east of the area once again as more wintry air moves in behind the system by midweek.

NAM model showing the development of widespread showers and clouds throughout the area late Monday Night into Tuesday.

Slow thaw will lead to warm weekend

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

There is much still to be said and analyzed about the actual impacts of the polar vortex’s pass through our area early this week, but for now – the main story will become its exit and the ensuing warm up. High temperatures on Wednesday have already rebounded several degrees, and less aggressive wind gusts have allowed wind chills to warm up as well. Don’t get us wrong — the airmass remains downright frigid — but the record breaking cold is moving out of the picture. The polar vortex is already retreating well to our north and will continue to do so through Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will respond, and warm, as the week comes to a close. Forecast models are in good agreement that surface temperatures will, as well. Highs should slowly warm into the 30’s by the end of the week. The pattern, then, will begin to change. The first sign will be a weak storm system which will slingshot towards our area from the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and may provide a period of light snow. Minimal accumulations are expected. But by this weekend, a stronger storm system will be organizing over the Central United States and the southerly flow ahead of it will begin pumping warmer air into our area.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

Coastal storm to bring periods of heavy rain Sunday

December 28, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A developing coastal storm system is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to the area later on Sunday, with a low pressure system tracking from the Mid Atlantic states to a position just off the coasts of New Jersey and eventually Long Island. Despite the historically good track for wintry precipitation, a lack of cold air in the antecedent airmass will lead to mostly if not all rain throughout the forecast area — with no wintry precipitation concerns.

Instead, high clouds will begin filtering into the area on Sunday and rain will stream into New Jersey from southwest to northeast. Increasing moisture and warming temperatures both in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere will mark an environment which will become favorable for heavy rain by later Sunday evening. As the surface low passes off the coast of New Jersey early on Sunday evening, enhanced lift and dynamics will create a period of very heavy rain — which will shift through New Jersey and New York City , eventually moving northeast into New England. Rainfall totals are likely to exceed 1″ throughout a vast majority of the area.

NAM model showing Sunday’s forester at many different levels of the atmosphere, producing heavy rain in our area Sunday evening.

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