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John Homenuk

Tranquil weather will give way to weekend nor’easter

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Colder, but more tranquil weather has settled into the forecast area to end the holiday week. After some light snow showers associated with a weak front and coastal system on Thursday, pleasant weather is expected on Friday and Saturday. Additionally, there will even be a bit of a warming trend both days, as high temperatures reach into the 40’s. The arctic air which stepped into the area earlier in the week won’t have any reinforcement until early next week, and so airmass modification will allow for temperatures to push warmer on both Friday and Saturday especially as the surface high pressure slips off the East Coast.

By Sunday, the weather becomes more active as a southern stream disturbance will slingshot up the coast. The system will ride on the eastern periphery of an incoming trough over the Central United States which, in its own right, will carry a ton of cold air with it. This means a few things, however. First, the system looks to be progressive despite its deepening off the coast. Second, the system will have plenty of warm air with it — and the cold air will have already modified out of the Northeast US. The aforementioned antecedent airmass won’t hold much potential for wintry precipitation. As such, the main concerns for this weekends system are a period of heavy rain and some gusty winds.

NAM model forecasting a coastal storm system on Sunday, providing the area with heavy rain.

NAM model forecasting a coastal storm system on Sunday, providing the area with heavy rain.

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John Homenuk

Rain, fog continuing through Monday evening

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Periods of rain, with continued spotty areas of dense fog, are expected to persist throughout the day on Monday. The culprit? A low pressure system riding northward up the coast along a frontal boundary. With plenty of moisture available, and warmer than normal air sitting along the coast and throughout much of the Mid Atlantic, widespread rain has developed essentially from the Southeast states into the Northeast US this morning. The rain will continue through much of Monday afternoon, with the areas of fog likely not lifting until later today.

Regional radar imagery this morning showed the bands of moderate to heavy rain continuing to stream up the East Coast. With time, however, the frontal boundary will begin to sag eastward and the heavier rain will follow suit. Cooler air is expected to move into the region by later tonight into Tuesday — as the 70 degree weather from Sunday will quickly become a distant memory. By Christmas day, we will be tracking the potential for bands of snow. More details after the break..

Regional radar imagery from Monday morning, showing areas of moderate to heavy rain moving up the East Coast.

Regional radar imagery from Monday morning, showing areas of moderate to heavy rain moving up the East Coast.

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John Homenuk

Tropical moisture could spoil weekend

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The pleasant, dry and less humid weather which has settled into the area during the middle of this week, however enjoyable, looks to be short lived. Forecast models have been consistent in taking a weak (possibly tropical) system with an impressive amount of low level moisture, and tracking it from the Gulf of Mexico up along the East Coast. With the weak shortwave being scooped up by a progressive trough over the Ohio Valley, a surface low is forecast to develop and move up the East Coast beginning Thursday and continuing into early Saturday.

The system in the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to develop into a tropical entity by some models, is struggling amidst strong upper level winds. But it still may develop into a weak system before ejecting north and east and being absorbed into the mid level flow. The National Hurricane Center suggests the system has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system.

Visible satellite imagery of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico on the morning of June 5th, 2013.

Visible satellite imagery of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico on the morning of June 5th, 2013.

The result, in terms of sensible weather for our area, will be clouds and showers beginning late Thursday and continuing through at least the first part of the weekend. The exact track of the surface low and interactions aloft will determine where the heaviest rain falls, but needless to say periods of rain are likely with the potential for some thunderstorms as well. Late Thursday into early Saturday in particular look to feature the most unsettled weather. Things look to clear out a bit during the day on Saturday, so Sunday could be salvaged if the timing holds up.

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