Posts

The stratosphere, blocking, and a hemispheric pattern change

What exactly could a ridge in the Kara Sea, the remnants of Hurricane Nicole, and a circulation in the stratosphere all have in common? They’ll all have significant impacts on a changing weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere over the next two weeks. Meteorology is a fickle, uncertain, and highly detailed process in almost every regard. But every once and a while, the fluid process that runs through our planets entire atmosphere can give us a show — where multiple processes come together, and they can be easily visualized and understood.

What’s occurring over the next 7 days is, by and large, a hemispheric pattern change. The progressive pattern across the United States, which has been dominated by a Pacific Jet and relatively uneventful disturbances, will undoubtedly shift. Changing wavelengths are likely to make the pattern changes effects even more dramatic. But the most interesting aspect is where, when and why these changes are occurring.

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Monitoring the Stratosphere in November

Well, we’d be wrong not to mention that we are all rejuvenating from releasing our winter forecast for 2015-16. We hoped you all enjoyed reading it –whether or not it was what you were hoping to hear. It took a lot of collaboration, research, and efforts between all of us here to put it together.

In the upcoming days, we plan for a series of technical posts for our premium subscribers to explore more on important topics from the winter forecast. For this post,  we discuss more about Stratospheric Warming.

There’s been a high volume of discussion within the weather community regarding snow cover extent over Eurasia, and it’s potential foreshadowing of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, which may be correlated to a negative Artic Oscillation phase (-AO), 2 to 3 weeks thereafter.  According to the automated graph below, snow cover is now expanding and running close to 2009 at this time. As some of you may already know, the winter following that was featured colder than normal temperatures with above normal snowfall for December; and then same again in February. We also had a minor stratospheric warming in event in November, before a major SSW later in January and February.

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