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John Homenuk

Showers, thunderstorms likely through Thursday

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These days, Spring’s impacts are fleeting at best. This week won’t be much different, as Spring will make a one day appearance on Thursday and  disappear for several more days thereafter. Nevertheless, the impacts over the next 24 to 48 hours will be noteworthy when it comes to our sensible weather. A warm front approaching the area will be first signaled this afternoon by steady showers, which will continue on and off through the evening. Temperatures will rise into the 40’s as winds turn southerly from the late afternoon into the overnight period.

A low pressure system developing from the Ohio Valley into the Northern Mid Atlantic will aid in the continuation of the aforementioned southerly flow on Thursday. The approaching warm front will continue the chance of showers, with clouds and fog likely in the morning hours. Temperatures, however, will rebound into the 50’s during the day. The warm front will also be home to a tremendous thermal gradient, which will shift northward through New Jersey toward New York City on Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Milder air will give way to rain, storm threat

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A relentlessly active pattern continues as we make our way into the latter half of February. Despite warmer air moving into the area on Thursday and Friday, a significant storm system in the Central United States will move northeastward towards the Great Lakes and drag a cold front through the area later on Friday. The weather on Thursday, in sensible terms, will be much milder than usual with temperatures both aloft and at the surface increasing and plenty of sun expected. We’ll consider it a bit of a consolation prize for the volatility of the pattern over the last several weeks. High temperatures are expected to reach close to 50 degrees in many locations (although cooler near the shore, as usual for this time of year) which will feel almost balmy compared to what we’ve become accustomed to.

Friday, however, looks to be another active weather day in the area with multiple hazards. First and foremost, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Central and Southern NJ in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, a cold front will move through the area later on Friday. Increased forcing/lift along this front will act as an impressive trigger for storms — and southerly flow ahead of the front will likely provide adequate instability for at least elevated thunderstorms in those areas. A very impressive mid and low level jet just above our heads provides the potential for strong winds to mix down to the surface in any thunderstorms. Although widespread strong/damaging winds aren’t expected, a few severe gusts seem likely but will remain isolated. The threat drops off farther north where instability is less, although rumbles of thunder and heavy rain are still likely along the front.

Hazards overview for Friday, February 21 2014.

Hazards overview for Friday, February 21 2014.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Unsettled weather returns

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After a splendid Saturday which featured plenty of sun and warmer temperatures, unsettled weather has returned to the forecast during the second half of this weekend. Multiple disturbances moving through the atmosphere aloft will touch off clouds, showers and the potential for thunderstorms throughout the area on Sunday afternoon. Much of the same is forecast on both Monday and Tuesday, although the sun should make an appearance at some point on both days. Check out the express forecast below, and have a terrific Sunday!

Rest of Today/Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some breaks of sun possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70’s. West/southwest winds around 15 miles per hour.

Monday: Partly cloudy and warmer, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms particularly in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80’s. Southwest winds around 15 miles per hour. Some of the storms could produce heavy downpours. Feeling more humid with rising dew points.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the lower 80’s. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds continuing around 15 miles per hour.