Posts

Miguel Pierre

Wednesday Overview: More Heavy Rain and Possible Thunderstorms Through Tonight

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A large complex storm system continues to impact the region today. Some patchy and dense fog from early this morning has now given away more rainfall as another warm front moving slowly northward over the region this afternoon. Rain will likely fall heavy at times, leading to some minor flooding in poor drainage or low-lying areas. Despite the rain, temperatures will gradually rise into upper 50s to middle 60s over the region this evening, winds becoming more southerly.

Then a cold front will begin approaching the region early tonight. Models show more lift and instability increasing ahead of this front the during the evening hours. This might a support a line of  thunderstorms that could contain very heavy downpours and some gusty winds later this evening. Rainfall totals could exceed over 1.00″ again. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts over Central and Southern NJ this evening. Some other highlights over the next few days:

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Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Excessive Heat & Scattered T-Storms for Saturday and Sunday

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Oppressive heat and humidity will continue through Sunday with a strong upper-level ridge over region.  Temperatures are already approaching the upper 80s or lower 90s late this morning. High temperatures will be middle to upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday, over much of the region. Heat index values will be between 105F to 110F this afternoon. Therefore the National Weather Service now has excessive heat warnings for most of the region through Sunday. Take precautions to stay well-hydrated, while outdoors this weekend.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. A lack of deep layer shear and large scale forcing will likely inhibit more organized or widespread severe weather threats in the region. But with extreme levels of instability and moisture in the atmosphere, a few thunderstorms could become strong or severe with gusty winds, torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Some other highlights.

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Miguel Pierre

Monday Overview: Pleasant weather today…warming trend for the week

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This past weekend was kind of dreary overall with more clouds and showers around. But early this week, is look more beautiful. Some clouds may mix with sunshine at times today. But more sunshine is anticipated today with high pressure over the region. Temperatures will rise into lower 80s over much of region this afternoon with light northerly winds. These temperature are few degrees below average. But it will still feel pleasant overall with low humidity.

This pleasant weather will continue into tonight, with any clouds during the evening hours clearing overnight. Temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 60s over much of the region. Overall this week’s weather looks benign, until Thursday and Friday when some heat and thunderstorms likely return to region. Here are some highlights for this week:

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John Homenuk

Heavy rain, gusty winds likely on Wednesday

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The interaction between tropical moisture — remnants of Hurricane Patricia — and a strong mid level atmospheric disturbance over the North Central US will aid in the development of steady rain on Wednesday. As forcing for precipitation increases during the morning hours, steady rains will develop from southwest to northeast throughout the area. Atmospheric moisture content will increase throughout the day, as a psuedo-warm front moves through New Jersey and New York.

Precipitable water values between 200 and 300 percent above average are a testament to the tropical moisture involved in Wednesday’s rains. During the late morning and afternoon, a low level jet stream is expected to strengthen, further aiding in the potential for heavy rains. While heavy rain isn’t expected to be constant, sporadic heavy rains could cause localized flooding, despite the moderate drought conditions in much of Northern New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.

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