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Heavy Rain Likely This Weekend, Mild and Unsettled Through Next Week

February 9, 2018/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

Today has been another cold, but relatively calm day across much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Some weak lift associated with a frontal boundary over the region has spark some patchy areas of light snow and snow flurries, mainly confined to the western parts of New York State as well as southern New York and northern New Jersey. These areas of precipitation will gradually shift north over the rest of the evening as the frontal boundary and lift also begin to gain more latitude. Since precip rates will be rather low and conditions are not ideal for snow accumulations, only a trace is expected for the locations that manage to see more sustained light snow. Otherwise, high pressure retreating off of the Mid Atlantic coast will contribute to more southerly flow this evening, which will begin to bring in a more mild airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, moisture will begin to increase and this will likely cause the rest of the evening to remain rather cloudy. Lows this evening will come quite early in the evening as the warm air moving into the mid levels of the atmosphere will also help to warm things up tonight after midnight. Most of the area will see lows in the upper 20’s to middle 30’s, but these will rise into the middle to upper 30’s during the overnight hours, with come locations in southern New Jersey likely reaching the 40’s.

This afternoons current surface observations, regional radar mosaic, and high resolution satellite imagery showing a cold day across the region with areas of light snow

Heavy Rain Likely Sunday

Saturday will likely start off rather mild and with substantial overcast as mid to low level warm air and moisture continue to stream in over the region from the south. This surge in mild temperatures and moisture will be thanks to a large, but disorganized area of mid level energy extending from the West coast, all the way into the Great Lakes. Additionally, the sub-tropical jet stream will also be getting involved by pumping moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast United States, creating a large area of showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually work their way north during the day on Saturday, likely working their way into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by the late afternoon hours. Conditions will almost certainly remain unsettled with a chance of showers lasting well into the evening hours. Highs on Saturday will be quite mild, with most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast likely getting into the lower 40’s, with some locations to the south possibly seeing highs in the lower 50’s! We’ll have the same situation tomorrow night as we did tonight, were temperatures during the overnight hours actually rise, with temperatures likely getting well into the 40’s and even middle 50’s for portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New Jersey.

Conditions should really deteriorate during the early morning hours of Sunday morning, as warm/moist air surges ahead of semi-stationary frontal boundary out over the Ohio Valley. Early Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours should virtually be a washout, with a threat of heavy downpours across much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The main batch of moderate to heavy rain should gradually push north and east off the coast during the middle afternoon hours, but there will still be a threat of some steady showers ahead of the last concentrated batch of rain. This last batch looks to come into the Northeast around 6-8pm on Sunday, with some locally heavy rainfall likely. This area of showers will also have a chance at producing some gusty winds as the low level jet streak a few thousand feet above the ground begins to strengthen. Rainfall totals should be above an inch for interior sections of the Northeast, with higher amounts around 1.5-2″ closer to the coast. The threat for stream flooding is rather low at this time, but there could be some urban flooding in locations that are prone to poor drainage. However, this will be highly dependent on just how much rain falls over the six to twelve hours or so on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be quite impressive, with readings likely breaking into the 50’s areawide ahead of the cold front. Some locations to the south may even make a solid run at the 60’s later in the evening on Sunday.

This afternoons NAM model showing the progression of the heavy rain set to impact the region into Sunday night

Unsettled and Mild Next Week

A frontal boundary will move across the Northeast and off the Mid Atlantic coast by Monday afternoon, which should be able to kick most of the moist/unstable airmass out of the region temporarily. Temperatures should moderate back into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s for the most part on Monday and Tuesday, but the large and disorganized area of mid level energy out over the west will begin to undergo a change. This system will gradually drift south and begin to break off from the main upper level flow, causing another period of zonal winds to rage from west to east over the country. As these zonal winds take over, we’ll see more moisture begin to surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. As this moisture moves over the region, temperatures will once again return to well-above normal across the Northeast. In fact, this afternoon European model even shows the potential for the NYC to get into the 60’s by Thursday, which would likely challenge some records. The best threat for rain appears to be on Thursday as the bulk of the Gulf moisture moves up and over the Northeast. It is too early to say whether or not there will be a heavy rain threat from this system, but we will certainly be monitoring things over the next week or so and provide updates when needed!

The European Ensembles probability of reaching/exceeding 50 degrees by next Thursday-showing a rather high chance over portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

Wintry Mix Exits, Unsettled Pattern Sticks Around Through Next Week

February 7, 2018/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

The area of low pressure that moved inland over much of the Northeast is finally beginning to wind down, with precipitation shutting down from west to east. The storm initially came up from the southwest early this morning, producing a wide area of snow and mixed precipitation over much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The areas that did start off as snow around the New York metro area this morning gradually saw the snow change to sleet, and then light to moderate patches of freezing rain as warmer air in the mid levels began to push north. As mentioned on Monday, there was a chance that the low level cold would be under-modeled as it has many times in the past, and that is exactly what happened this morning/afternoon. Despite mid level temperatures above freezing a few thousand feet above the ground, surface temperatures remained at or below freezing just long enough to allow for quite a bit of freezing rain to fall across southern portions of New England as well as portions of the Mid Atlantic states. This freezing rain caused very hazardous travel conditions for the morning commute, with many folks getting caught off-guard by the unexpected slick conditions. As the area of low pressure continued to move to the north and east this afternoon, warm air began to surge in at all levels, and this caused most, in not all of the precipitation in the area to turn to plain rain. Some locations in southern New England are still dealing with light to moderate freezing rain, while locations well to the north are dealing with moderate to heavy snow.

Continued moderate rain will be likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast through at least 8pm, with precip gradually ending from west to east. Colder air will be working its way east as well behind a frontal system, so there will be a slight chance that the precip could end as light snow or a light mix. Temperatures will once again drop below freezing this evening, with much of the area seeing lows drop back into the middle 20’s, with locations off to the north and west likely flirting with teens due to the snow cover. Regardless, conditions will remain hazardous for travel during the evening commute, so please use caution while driving on untreated roads!

This evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface temperatures over the Northeast showing a wide variety of weather conditions

Thursday Into Friday

Conditions will start off rather cold on Thursday morning as an area of high pressure builds off to our west over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will have likely dropped quite a few degrees below freezing during the overnight hours, so expect any puddles or standing water to have frozen over, making for another potentially slippery commute. Black ice may be rather prevalent over the area tomorrow morning as well, so please use caution! Regardless, the rest of the day looks rather calm as the area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley continues to build, leaving most of the Northeast rather sunny. Colder and drier air will be working its way down in the mid levels of the atmosphere from Canada, so we expect highs to generally stay in the middle to upper 20’s. Conditions will remain calm and cold through the evening hours as the area of high pressure continues to move over the Mid Atlantic. As it does so, conditions will become rather favorable for radiational cooling to set up over the Northeast, allowing for lows to drop into the middle teens and 20’s across much of the area.

Friday looks to be rather similar to Thursday, just with a chance of more clouds and significantly less windy. The Pacific jet stream will begin to go zonal over the entire country (west to east), which will signal the start of a warmer period, but also an unstable one. This west to east pattern will allow for multiple impulses of energy to quickly move from one coast to the other rather quickly, but a lack of anything to slow them down along the way will keep each disturbance weak and disorganized. One such disturbance looks to be over the northern Plains on Friday afternoon, which could cause some very light rain or snow to break out over northern portions of the New York metro area later in the day before quickly moving to the east. Major changes will be underway by Friday night, as strong low level flow begins to establish itself from the southwest, ushering in warmer mid level temperatures. This will allow for lows on Friday to mainly stay in the middle to upper 20’s, with some locations staying in the 30’s.

This afternoons NAM model showing significant warm air advection over the Northeast on Friday afternoon, leading to a change to warmer temperatures

Unsettled Conditions This Weekend

Starting on Friday, the subtropical jet stream will begin to expand over the Gulf of Mexico, creating abundant latent heat release which will eventually get caught up in the strong southwesterly flow over the eastern US. Our next system will begin to take shape over the southern Plains on Saturday morning as moisture-rich air runs into cooler mid level temperatures, sparking a large area of precipitation. The zonal jet streak will still be present over the northern tier of the country, and this will only work to enhance precipitation growth and intensity over the south. Snow will be possible over portions of the Mid West through the Ohio Valley where the colder air can hang on longer, as high pressure dives into the central Plains states. Mid level ridging over the western Atlantic will only help to enhance the northward transport of moisture into the Northeast on Sunday morning as light to moderate rain begins to break out. Rain looks to last pretty much all day on Sunday, likely making the day a washout. Due to the progressive nature of this system, flooding does not look all that likely in the Northeast, however there still may be some heavy downpours as precipitable water amounts will be quite high for this time of year. Temperatures this weekend will also be quite anomalous, with highs likely getting into the 40’s and lower 50’s across much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Another wave may develop along a stalled frontal boundary to our west on Monday, leaving us with another threat at some moderate rain to start the work week. At this time, it appears that the threat for substantial snowfall from either system is rather low, but we will continue to monitor these systems as they draw closer!

This afternoons NAM model showing an impressive moisture feed setting up directly from the Gulf of Mexico

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Winter Storm Likely Wednesday for Portions of the Northeast

February 5, 2018/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

Today has been a rather cold and blustery day across the entire Northeast as a cold front quickly blasted across from west to east early this morning. This cold front ushered in a fresh blast of cold air from Canada, causing temperatures to drop a few degrees this morning before peak daytime heating. As the cold front moved offshore, dry air filtered into the region which allowed for mostly sunny conditions to persist throughout the rest of the day. Despite the clear skies, the cold mid level temperatures only allowed for temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 30’s for the immediate NYC metro area. Highs were a bit lower to the north and west with temperatures staying in the middle to upper 20’s-which is only slightly below normal for this time of the year. The main story today was actually the winds that arrived immediately after the frontal passage, which gusted at around 30-35 mph at times. These winds really helped to make conditions feel quite a bit colder than they actually were, with wind chills in the middle to lower teens. Additionally, any residual standing water left over from melting snow quickly froze this morning, leading to some very slippery conditions across the entire Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Conditions will remain quite clear, with winds gradually abating by around midnight. A weak area of high pressure will work over the Mid Atlantic this evening and provide rather favorable conditions for radiational cooling to take place tonight. Highs should drop down into the middle to lower 20’s for most of the NYC metro area, with locations to the north and west getting down into the middle teens for lows.

This afternoons high resolution satellite imagery and surface observations over the Northeast

Calm Tuesday, Winter Storm Likely Wednesday

Tuesday: A weak area of mid level energy will be racing across the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Northeast tomorrow morning, which will have to be closely monitored for possibly being able to produce some areas of light snow in the morning. This area of energy, being so weak, will not have a reliable source of moisture and will also be running into dry air. This will cause the threat of snow to be greatest over western locations of the Northeast. Any snow that does fall will very light in nature and should only lead to accumulations of around a trace to an inch. This area of energy will likely move off the coast by the middle afternoon hours, gradually giving way to clearing skies from west to east. Despite the threat for some isolated snow, the rest of the day should be mainly calm and cool, with highs staying in the low to middle 30’s across the immediate NYC metro area. These calm and conditions will last through the evening hours, with lows ranging in the middle to upper 20’s.

By Wednesday morning, two areas of energy will begin to interact over the central Plains states, leading to a very weak surface low developing over the Tennessean valley. As this low develops Wednesday morning, it will drag up a moderate amount of moisture with it that will likely cover the majority of the eastern US. The area of high pressure that is currently dominating our weather will be retreating to the east by this time, leaving some residual cold air behind over the Northeast. Precipitation will likely expand further to the north and east during the morning commute on Wednesday as an impressive upper level jet streak strengthens overhead. Since the surface high will be displaced to the east, the cold air will only be able to stick around for so long as warmer air begins to rise up from the south. This will likely lead to a quick-hitting period of moderate to heavy snow propagating from south to north , that will gradually change to rain over time as warmer air moves north. The further north and west you get from New York City, the better chance you have at more wintry precipitation. At this time, points south and east stand to get maybe a coating to an inch before the changeover to rain, but locations over NW New Jersey and SE New York have the best chance to see at least a couple of inches before a mix and eventual change to rain sets in.

It is important to note that the hi-res models have been waffling quite a bit over the past day or so, and this is mainly due to the handling of the extent of the low level cold air. If the cold air sticks around longer, there will be a greater threat of snow lasting longer in addition to more substantial frozen precipitation accumulations. These types of events usually do tend to be colder than forecast, which is why we feel that those traveling Wednesday morning keep an eye on the weather and stay tuned for further updates, as travel may be at least moderately impacted across the region.

Precipitation will gradually end from southwest to northeast as the low quickly heads off to sea during the evening hours on Wednesday.

This evenings NAM model showing the evolution of the winter storm over the Northeast on Wednesday

Another Storm Possible Next Weekend

The computer models continue to depict another area of low pressure developing over the Tennessee valley Saturday and into Sunday as yet another area of high pressure exits to our east. This system will likely be quite large and disorganized in nature as the upper level pattern remains quite unfavorable for a strong surface cyclone. Additionally, there does not look to be a reliable source of cold air over the east, therefore any chance at significant snowfall through the weekend remains low at this time. There is still a lot of time for this to change over the next couple of days so make sure to check back for updates as they become available!

This afternoons GFS model showing the potential for another system to impact the east this weekend

Have a great night!

Steve Copertino

Light Wintry Mix Likely Thursday Night, Coastal Storm Possible Sunday into Monday

January 31, 2018/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

Today has been a rather cold and typical winter day across the entire Northeast after the system that impacted the region on Monday left some fresh snow cover for eastern locations. A large area of energy associated with the tropospheric polar vortex has been meandering just to the north of the Northeast, which has allowed for some light snow flurries to break out earlier this afternoon and into this evening. These flurries were mainly confined to the northern sections of upstate New York and portions of northern New England as moisture and forcing was rather meager with this system. Regardless, some limited moisture in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere allowed for some spotty clouds to break out during the afternoon hours. Despite the peaks of sun during the day, high temperatures were pretty cold across the entire Northeast, with most of the New York metro area seeing readings stay in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Locations to the north and west were a little colder, with highs in the lower to middle 20’s. Calm and cold conditions will last through the evening and into the overnight hours tonight as an area of high pressure located to our south exits off the Mid Atlantic coast. As this area of high pressure moves to the south and east, surface winds winds will begin to shift to a more southerly component as mid level winds turn to the southwest. This mid to low level flow will allow slightly warmer mid level temperatures to work in from the south, allowing surface low temperatures to only drop into lower to middle 20’s for the vast majority of the region. The increased southwesterly flow will also allow for more mid to high level clouds to take over as the night progresses.

This evenings latest 2m RTMA temperatures, surface observations, and regional radar mosaic. Note the weak area of light snow and flurries over New England associated with some disorganized energy over southern Canada.

Thursday Through Friday

Thursday will likely start off cold, but rather cloudy across the majority of the Northeast as stout southerly flow continues to pump in and over the region. The majority of the day should be generally quiet as we await the passage of a weak cold front that will be moving in from west to east over the area. Ahead of this front temperatures will likely rise above freezing by the mid afternoon hours, with highs likely getting into the lower to middle 40’s across much of the Northeast. Some light rain showers will be possible over southern portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture continues to increase. The best chance for precipitation will come towards the late evening hours as all levels of the atmosphere become saturated as the front briefly interacts with some residual moisture off of the Mid Atlantic coast. Temperatures will be above-freezing to start off, but this afternoons model guidance has become a little more bullish in showing sub-freezing temperatures arriving just a little after the mid-way point in the precip. Areas from west to east should see a rather gradual shift from rain to snow, with some light accumulation possible. Trace amounts are expected, but 1-2″ cannot be ruled out in some of the higher terrain. The main threat with this front will be any untreated roadways quickly freezing over as temperatures quickly drop behind the front.

The cold front and any remaining precipitation should be moving quickly off of the coast on Friday morning, leaving much colder temperatures and gusty winds in its wake. Fresh Polar air will be blasting through the East during the morning and early afternoon hours, easily making Friday the coldest day for at least a week. The combination of the fresh Polar airmass, dry mid levels, and gusty winds will leave highs in the lower to middle 20’s with upper teens likely off the north and west. There may be some isolated strands of snow showers during the afternoon hours on Friday due to the upper level trough being directly overhead. These snow showers may be capable of temporarily reducing visibility, but any accumulations should be insignificant. Friday night will be a very cold night as an area of high pressure builds just to our south overnight, allowing for near-perfect conditions for radiational cooling to take place. Expect for lows to drop down in the lower to middle teens across the NYC metro area, with single-digits likely off to the north and west.

This afternoons high resolution NAM model showing the passage of a cold front and the impressive Polar airmass looming behind it

A Messy Super Bowl Sunday Possible Across the East

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the east coast on Saturday with clear skies and cold temperatures. Highs will likely be a couple degrees warmer than Friday, but still in the middle 20’s to lower 30’s across the entire Northeast. As we head deeper into the day on Saturday, the bigger story becomes focused on energy diving into the Plains states as our high pressure begins to retreat to the east. As the high leaves us, southerly flow will begin to overspread the region as a low pressure begins to form over the Ozarks. Temperatures will begin to rise steadily on Sunday as the low pressure system approaches from the southwest, leaving the majority of the Northeast above freezing. At this time, it appears likely that precip will start later in the afternoon on Sunday, becoming rather steady by the evening hours. As of right now, this setup does not look to be supportive of widespread snow at all due to the lack of a high pressure to the north to provide some kind of cold. Additionally, this system will be moving very quickly as the mid level energy remains broad and disorganized. For now we expect mainly rain on Sunday, with the possibility of a changeover towards the end of the evening. We will continue to monitor the progress of this system carefully over the next couple of days and provide updates when necessary!

This afternoons European model showing a rainy Sunday evening across the NYC metro area, with some snow off to the far NW regions

Have a great night!

Steve Copertino

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