Rain likely tonight and tomorrow, but not a washout
Warm and moist air continues to stream into the region as a strong southwest flow throughout the atmosphere has taken over. These southwest winds are on the leading edge of a storm system that is developing in the Ohio Valley, and will bring us some light rain tonight, and periods of moderate rain tomorrow.
What had initially looked like a much bigger rain event has toned down somewhat on recent guidance. This is for two reasons:
1) The secondary redevelopment is a bit too late and the storm will be somewhat disorganized at our latitude. It will not truly get going until it’s to our north.
2) The track of the system looks to be directly over NYC. This means that the heavier stratiform precipitation should be west of the city, but the warm conveyor belt rains with the low-level jet should be east of the city.