Today's 18z GFS at 850mb valid for Monday afternoon shows plenty of cold air in SE Canada, which will make a brief visit on Tuesday. But as a whole, that cold stays to the north and we'll have warmer temperatures, as shown.

Weekend Update: Modifying temperatures, then variable weather next week

We hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Today provided a chilly day for all of the Black Friday shoppers, though the airmass will be moderating over the next few days, before a cold front swings through on Monday night.

Tonight will be very chilly as high pressure slides just to our south tonight. With clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures will fall pretty quickly tonight via radiational cooling. Clouds may increase a bit as we head closer to daybreak — particularly to the west of NYC — but that won’t be before temperatures generally fall to around 20 in most NYC suburbs, mid teens in snow-covered NW regions, and low-to mid 20s in NYC itself.

As we head to Saturday, the airmass will be modifying pretty quickly, as 850mb temperatures rise. This is because the high pressure will be moving to our east, giving us a return SW flow an an approaching warm front. However, the warm front will lead to an increase in clouds, which will prevent surface temperatures from rising much. Highs will be in the upper 30s, with the chance of some light snow showers and snow flurries — perhaps mixing with rain showers closer to the immediate coast. There is not a lot of lifting with the front, so precipitation will be spotty and not heavy — and any snow should not accumulate.

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Live Blog: Wednesday’s high impact Nor’Easter

Below, you will find our live blog which will be active and public throughout the day on Wednesday. Our meteorologists will update frequently with information on the storm, including the latest updates and information. Comment with any observations, information and thoughts you have as well!

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What to expect from Wednesday’s significant Nor’Easter

An early season winter storm will impact the area on Wednesday, during one of the busiest travel days of the entire year. Making matters more difficult for forecasters is the fact that the system goes against most climatological analogs, not only including time of year but general atmospheric teleconnections as well. With a +AO value and +NAO value, the idea of this storm system producing snow in our area is quite far fetched. Yet, forecast models and the general evolution of the mid level and surface pattern argues that someone in our area will, in fact, see significant snow.

Forecast models are now in good agreement that a mid level shortwave will slide eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast States on Wednesday. A trailing disturbance, surging through the Plains states, will eventually interact with the initial disturbance over the East Coast. As this occurs, a surface low pressure system will develop off the East Coast of the United States. Forming initially off the Southeast Coast near the Georgia and Carolina coasts, the storm will slide northeastward while strengthening, eventually ending up at a position near the 40/70 Benchmark.

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Nor’Easter to bring major travel impacts, several inches of snow

Two strong mid level disturbances moving through the Southeast United States will interact later this week, and in doing so will help force the development of a low pressure system off the East Coast. Previously inconsistent forecast models have come into better agreement on the track and intensity of a significant Nor’Easter which will impact the area on Wednesday. With a low pressure system forecast to develop just off the Southeast Coast of the Carolinas and head northward to a position just west of the 40/70 Benchmark, significant impacts are expected in and around our area.

Still, models are wavering slightly with the exact track of the storm system and its intensity. And, for our purposes, even a slight wobble or change in trajectory could have major implications. In short, a wobble to the west could draw warmer air in near the coast, while a wobble to the east could mean colder air throughout the area during the height of the storm. These intricate details won’t be ironed out for another 12-24 hours, but the developing consensus has helped us to formulate some ideas moving forward in regards to the upcoming storm.

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