Transitional weather has been the theme over the past few weeks, buckling the trend of the consistent above normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation which dominated the areas weather for several weeks prior. Much of the same will continue as we move into the second week of May, as an upper level trough is forecast to move from South-Central Canada towards the Northeast United States. Plenty of moisture streaming into our area from the south will work with the forcing from this trough, beginning around the middle of the upcoming week, to bring the potential for showers. Periods of more moderate rain are possible Wednesday and Thursday, and we could even see some scattered thunderstorms. Typically, with these types of events, the thunderstorms and heavy rain can be hit and miss. So we’ll have to see which areas are able to cash in on some of the heavier precipitation. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 5% risk for severe thunderstorms (not quite a “Slight Risk” which we saw a few days ago), for the potential of some scattered stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon.
If some of the heavier rain is able to work into the area, it would certainly be a possibility for some locations to see localized flooding. That being said, the ground remains rather dry after such a long period of below-normal precipitation. That should help us to avoid any significant flooding issues, if the heavy rain does come to fruition. To sum things up, it looks like scattered showers will enter the picture beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday evening. Make sure to plan for the potential for more moderate/steady rain at times as well…although it certainly isn’t a lock that we have a high-precipitation event on the way. We’ll keep you posted as the week continues.