A moist southerly flow advecting tropical like air into the area has been responsible for a big increase in dew points throughout the area — and a humid airmass in place late Tuesday. This airmass will remain in the area through Wednesday afternoon, when a disturbance will pass to the north of the area. Although the system isn’t overly strong (in fact, it’s pretty far away from the NYC area), just enough energy in the atmosphere will touch off showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. The combination of an unstable atmosphere, forcing/energy near the front, and adequate wind shear will support the development of showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong or severe. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the area in a ‘Slight Risk’ for severe thunderstorms on their Day 2 Outlook Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The wind shear will be more supportive of storm organization to the north of the city, so we agree with the Storm Prediction Center’s visual outlook…which keeps the entire area in a risk for severe thunderstorms, but signals that the most organized potential will be just north of the city into New England. However, interests in the entire area should keep an eye to the sky Wednesday afternoon. The storms will be capable of producing the usual heavy rain, lightning and thunder…along with the potential for some strong wind gusts and some isolated hail. The threat will end later Wednesday evening as the front passes.
Stay tuned for more updates as the event draws closer — and on Wednesday, for watches and warnings should they be needed.