Strong/severe storms possible Tuesday evening

The Storm Prediction Center’s updated outlook has placed the entire NYC Metro Area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms through Tuesday

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for 5/29/12. The categorical risk (left), and the percentage of severe wind gusts within 25 miles of point (right).

evening and into the early hours of Wednesday morning. In addition, the outlook includes a locally enhanced threat (30% chance within 25 miles of a point) of damaging wind gusts and large hail. The threat of storms this afternoon and evening comes in advance of a pre-frontal trough (not the actual surface cold front, but a triggering mechanism ahead of it) which will move through the Northeast US and then off the coast, before the  main surface cold front sweeps through on Wednesday. Some potential mitigating factors to the potential for organized severe weather include the late timing of the pre-frontal trough (may not sweep through the area until early evening, where surface instability will be less)…and somewhat of a lag of supportive shear for more organized storms (the best shear seems to be lagging behind the pre-frontal trough which is triggering the storms today).

Still, the threat does exist for strong to severe storms later this afternoon and evening and our area has been included in the enhanced risk area for these storms to produce strong winds and hail. The Storm Prediction Center may issue severe thunderstorm watches later this afternoon — in which case this post will be updated to reflect the watch in effect. Stay tuned.

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