Chance of storms continues the next few days

An upper level low continues to spin over the Northeast US as we reach the middle of the week, and although it is forecast to slowly erode and then

Temperature departure from normal expected on Wednesday morning from the GFS model (Policlimate)

drift eastward over the Northwest Atlantic, the system will continue to bring impacts to the area on both Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days, in response to energy in the atmosphere that is meandering around the upper level low pressure system. Such an occurrence is not overly rare, but the system is providing unusually cool temperatures for this time of year. With high temperatures in the low 60’s on both Monday and Tuesday, New York City saw temperature departures from normal of nearly -10 degrees — a stark difference to the theme of the past several months. The showers and thunderstorms which are possible on both Wednesday and Thursday could also add to a building statistic of days with rain — 25 of 36 days featured rain dating back to May 1, 2012. Forecast models continue showing temperature departures of 3 to 5 degrees below normal on Wednesday, with a rebound towards near normal on Thursday. The mornings will be cooler than normal (see the image on the right, valid early Wednesday morning) but the afternoons will warm up towards near-normal as we reach the end of the week.

The cool air will only stick around for so long, though, so don’t be totally fooled by its presence. Forecast models are in good agreement on a return to normal temperatures. In fact, many of them are already hinting at a return of potential heat (90+ F temps) by the middle of next week, and continuing through the middle and end of the month.

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