Afternoon Update: Periods of steady rain through early evening

Forecast models struggled with the placement and intensity forecasts of the area of rain this afternoon, which has ended up farther east and closer to New York City than expected last night and even early this morning. The area of showers and steady rain, developing in response to a push of warm and moist air from the south, has moved north and east from the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic and New England this morning and early afternoon. Periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times, are expected through this afternoon as the warm air advection continues across most of the area. Eventually, the showers will become less widespread and far more isolated .. likely by early this evening. However, the poor forecasting by short term models has left some unprepared for the steady rain early this afternoon. Total rain amounts are not expected to be prolific, but the chance of showers as transitioned into more of a “rain likely” forecast for what will be a dreary Tuesday. By later tonight, isolated showers are expected as temperatures will continue to run a bit warmer than they did on Monday. The warm air will begin to make its presence felt on Wednesday and Thursday, when temperatures will rise into the 70’s for highs ahead of a cold front which is expected to approach the area this weekend.

Latest NYC-Area radar imagery courtesy of weather-underground shows the intensity and movement of precipitation over the last hour.

Rest of Today: Showers, and steady rain at times. The steady rain is more likely to occur west of New York City, especially over Western and Northwestern New Jersey, as well as Southeast New York. Here, moderate rain is likely through early this evening. Elsewhere, showers likely through around dinner-time. Bring an umbrella and a sweatshirt if you’re headed out as temperatures remain only in the 60’s this afternoon. East/southeast winds off the water keep things pretty raw throughout the area as well.

Tonight/YanksCast: The Yankees take on the Boston Red Sox in the Bronx tonight at 7:05pm in the second to last game of the season — and an important one at that, with the Yanks leading the AL East by 1 game over Baltimore with 2 to play. The last thing they need is a rainout and a doubleheader on Wednesday. It looks like the steady rain will taper off by late afternoon, but the soggy and damp conditions could create issues if the showers linger into early evening. One thing is for sure – the conditions will be poor for those of you who are attending. Expect a cool east wind, damp conditions, and isolated showers. But the lack of steady rain should prevent a rainout.

Wednesday: Much warmer with high temperatures in the upper 70’s to possibly 80 in some locations by afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and continue through the early evening before tapering off with the loss of daytime heating. South winds throughout the day — again, the biggest story will be the warmth.