Wintry mix returns into Wednesday morning

NAM Model forecast for early Wednesday morning January 16th. Notice the snow across the northern suburbs and rain to the south, including sleet/freezing rain in many areas between.

NAM Model forecast for early Wednesday morning January 16th. Notice the snow across the northern suburbs and rain to the south, including sleet/freezing rain in many areas between.

A warmer pattern, which has settled into the area essentially from late December through the middle of January, will finally break beginning this week. It’s entrance, fittingly, will be marked by a light to moderate precipitation event which could feature snow sleet and freezing rain, especially across the interior. An elongated disturbance moving through the Northeast United States on Tuesday evening through Wednesday will touch off the development of a low pressure system along a frontal boundary to our east (yes, the one that passed on Monday), which will aid in the development of precipitation which will be especially steady in our area from Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning. Temperatures will be warming in the low levels of the atmosphere, but only in an area just above the surface. So, while temperatures near the surface will hover in the low to mid 30’s in many areas, snow will flip to sleet, freezing rain, and rain near the coast fairly quickly. Farther inland, a more prolonged period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely. A few inches of snow, plus the possibility of some ice accretion, does exist across Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Connecticut.

Timing: Light precipitation is expected to begin overnight Tuesday, likely around midnight, as snow/sleet in many areas. A quick transition to liquid precipitation is expected across Southern New Jersey and the coastal areas of New Jersey and Long Island. Across the suburbs, and for a while in New York City, sleet/freezing rain may occur…likely through around 3 to 5 am. After this point, a transition to rain is expected across most of Central New Jersey, New York City, and the immediate suburbs. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will remain possible through the rush hour Wednesday morning across the Northern New Jersey suburbs, Southeast New York, and Connecticut before precipitation becomes much more spotty by later Wednesday morning and early afternoon.

Accumulations: No accumulations are expected in Central or Southern New Jersey, the New Jersey shore, or Long Island. Up to an inch of snow is possible from I-78 in New Jersey northward, this includes New York City although accumulations in the city are expected to be minimal. Across Northern NJ, Southeast NY and CT…1 to 2 inches of snow and a bit of ice/sleet is likely.

Hazards/Impacts: The greatest impact will be travel difficulties during the morning rush hour on Wednesday, which could be slippery and icy especially across the Northern suburbs of NJ, NY and CT. In the city, slippery conditions are also possible but less likely. Only wet roads are expected farther south across New Jersey and along the coasts.

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