With the streak of pleasant weather now officially over, the forecast takes a bit of a turn from unsettled to hazardous on Monday. A warm front moving north through Central NJ late Sunday Night into Monday will bring a more warm and humid airmass, while a cold front swings towards the area from the west. As the warm front pushes north of the area, the atmosphere will become more unstable — and likely supportive of thunderstorms. Favorable shear in the mid and low levels will help storm organization, and a line of thunderstorms is expected to push towards the area later Monday. Strong winds just above the surface may even mix down with daytime heating — making for quite a breezy day even before thunderstorms arrive.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas west of NYC in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, mentioning the potential for strong winds and an isolated tornado. Areas of east of NYC will remain more stable, with east winds off the area waters and less instability as the warm front will not be able to push farther north and east. Farther west, however, the developing storms could pose a threat for heavy rain and strong winds.
The windy conditions will be noticeable throughout the entire area, with strong winds just above the surface associated with the passing atmospheric disturbance. By late evening, the cold front will swing through — ushering out the warm and humid airmass and bringing in a cooler, more crisp airmass with west-northwesterly winds developing by Tuesday.
As always, stay tuned for further information including potential watches, warnings, or hazards information with the expected hazardous weather on mONDAY.