John Homenuk

Wind, severe weather possible Monday

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With the streak of pleasant weather now officially over, the forecast takes a bit of a turn from unsettled to hazardous on Monday. A warm front moving north through Central NJ late Sunday Night into Monday will bring a more warm and humid airmass, while a cold front swings towards the area from the west. As the warm front pushes north of the area, the atmosphere will become more unstable — and likely supportive of thunderstorms. Favorable shear in the mid and low levels will help storm organization, and a line of thunderstorms is expected to push towards the area later Monday. Strong winds just above the surface may even mix down with daytime heating — making for quite a breezy day even before thunderstorms arrive.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

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John Homenuk

A bit more unsettled today, Karen disorganized

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Warmer temperatures have been the trend over the past few days — and the pleasant streak of weather we have experienced over the last few weeks now looks to take a brief respite as we head into the weekend and the early part of next week. Increasing humidity today, coupled with a nearby boundary and mid-level atmospheric disturbance will mean increasing clouds and the chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Showers and storms haven’t been around in a while — in fact, almost two weeks (more in some spots). Today will bring isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the area from west to east, but the main story will be the humid feeling air and presence of more clouds than sun.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

The unsettled weather will continue through later tonight, but only scattered showers are expected this weekend. The main story will then be the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, and whether they track close enough to our area up the East Coast early next week to provide tropical rains. Forecast models have diverged in solutions, with some showing tropical rains and some wind while others now shunt the remnants of the system eastward out to sea.

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John Homenuk

TS Karen forms, pleasant pattern may end soon

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The last several days, spilling even into the past several weeks, have featured pleasant weather on average with little precipitation and abundant sunshine. In fact, not only has the weather been pleasant and free of any major storm systems — it has also offered a bit of something for everyone. Cool nights, featuring lows near or below freezing in the suburbs, were the story a week ago. Two to three weeks ago, temperatures reached near 90 with a brief burst of heat. Again this week, temperatures have climbed into the middle 80’s. One thing has remained consistent, however: There has been lots of sun, and very little precipitation. The benign weather pattern finally looks to come to an end, however brief, early next week. In fact, the changes begin on Friday as clouds increase and a weak mid level disturbance brings a chance of showers.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, after forecasters tracked the disturbance from the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico. Karen is forecast to track northeastward towards the Gulf Coast states late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a mid level trough over the Central United States will be shifting eastward towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The timing of the two features remains somewhat uncertain, but forecast models indicate the potential for tropical remnants and heavy rain to track up the coast early next week.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Gorgeous autumn weather continues

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Ten straight days of dry, pleasant, and sunny weather with low humidity. It has been quite a run, and we aren’t through yet. Stretching even farther back from the last cold front which brought some rain and storms (which seems like months ago at this point), it has been a 3 to 4 week stretch of pleasant weather in our area. Such a stretch is nearly unprecedented — but we have settled into a benign weather pattern. One has to wonder when the pattern ends, how long the unsettled weather that follows will continue.

Regional observations and fronts from the evening of October 2nd, 2013.

Regional observations and fronts from the evening of October 2nd, 2013.

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