Cold start, slowly warming this week

The growing season ended early Monday morning throughout much of the interior, down to the immediate suburbs of Western Union and Essex counties. The winds kept radiational cooling from performing too well, however, and much of the 5 Boros of NYC remained above freezing — so the growing season will technically continue there until the next freeze. Although it may seem very brisk today (temperatures will struggle into the 50’s Monday afternoon), the cold air will be rather brief. Temperatures are expected to slowly warm this week, with highs reaching into the 60’s by later this week ahead of a cold front. The roller coaster of temperatures has been a trend of late, with a similar event occurring last week ahead of a front and storm system.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon. Courtesy Weatherbell.

The airmass which settled into the area briefly on Sunday and Monday is not only cold, but also quite dry. Dew points are expected to fall well into the teens throughout the area as the airmass funnels southward on Monday morning and afternoon. The short lived nature of the airmass, however, will prevent any colder nights. Forecast models are adamant in advecting warmer air into the area as soon as Tuesday and Wednesday — and temperatures may reach the middle to upper 60’s by Thursday ahead of a front with a chance for precipitation.

Looking ahead into the middle part of November, medium range forecast models are in good agreement on a slightly warmer than normal pattern developing. As a large trough develops off the West Coast of the USA, the Southeast Ridge will begin to flex its muscles. So the cold air which you experienced this morning, while it certainly will return eventually over the next few months, may be absent for a few weeks.