Warmup continues, peaks Sunday

Forecast models continue to come into better agreement on the extent of the warmth reaching our area on Sunday, and it seems to be fairly anomalous and will certainly feel dramatically different from what we have experienced over the past several days and weeks. High temperatures are forecast to surge into the 60’s throughout much of the area by late this weekend, as a major storm system drives northward through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes. A warm front will push north of the area during the weekend (providing unsettled weather) but the main story will come after its passage, as southerly winds will bring in very warm air.

The trend towards warmth begins today, as high temperatures will push into the lower 40’s in many locations. For some, especially over the interior, it is the first day above freezing in over a week. But, moreso, Thursday will serve as the first sign of airmass modification, which has not been commonplace in our area recently as arctic intrusions have been relentless. Despite the cold air remaining just to our north over Canada (just because we’re warming up, doesn’t mean it’s depleted) the extent of warm air by this weekend will become quite impressive.

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

Driven by a developing and deepening trough over the Central United States, the aforementioned low pressure system will drive northwards into the Great Lakes. More interestingly for our area, a well defined warm front will shift north into New England. Showers and clouds are likely on Friday and Saturday as this warm front nears and passes the region. In addition, widespread fog is a distinct possibility as a result of warming in the lower levels of the atmosphere and increasing moisture. Low temperatures overnight on both Friday and Saturday will be much warmer than we have observed over the past several weeks. The current snowpack across the area certainly looks to take a significant hit, or maybe even a death blow, from this incoming warmup.

European model showing forecast maximum temperatures on Sunday, in the mid to upper 60's throughout much of the area.

European model showing forecast maximum temperatures on Sunday, in the mid to upper 60’s throughout much of the area.

By Sunday, the warmth will peak as southerly winds strengthen and the warm front becomes well established to our north. 850mb temperatures over 15 C (incredibly warm for this time of year) will surge into the area in the warm sector (the area where the warm front has passed, but cold front hasn’t). So we are expecting high temperatures to move well past 60 degrees on Sunday afternoon and evening. Clouds will remain around for the majority of the day, so we aren’t expecting temperature readings to skyrocket towards 70. But the increased moisture and warm temperatures will certainly feel relieving for some.

After the cold front moves through from Sunday into Monday, colder temperatures will return once again. For now, we look towards increasingly warm temperatures as the weekend approaches. As always, stay tuned for more on our social networks and be sure to contact us if you have any questions, comments or concerns.

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