Much has been said over the past several days regarding the potential for a winter weather event and snow accumulation late this week. And in reality, the potential is quite high. Forecast models, however, have been waffling with the potential for a bigger system and one that remains disorganized and is more likely to produce a moderate event. As forecasters, this keeps our confidence in the event rather low. The specific details and intricate interactions between atmospheric disturbances will ultimately determine how the storm forms, where it tracks, and how strong it is. But at this range, forecast guidance will struggle mightily to pin down the details.
To help quiet the noise a bit, we’ve provided a video discussion which breaks down the setup. In this video you’ll find our concerns, thoughts and ideas as we continue to analyze and interpret the data. Despite the uncertainty, we should begin to gain confidence in the eventual outcome of the system over the next 12-24 hours. You can watch the free video by clicking below. If you are on mobile, copy the video link into your browser.