John Homenuk

Front passes, coastal low threatens late week

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Cooler, less humid and more crisp air settled into the area on Tuesday behind a strong cold front which steamed through on Monday evening. The humidity and instability on Monday, which helped lead to strong to severe thunderstorms and a few damaging wind reports in New Jersey and New York, was a distant memory as it was swept seaward with the frontal passage. The new airmass is characterized by a large high pressure system, which stretches from the Mississippi Valley to Northern Maine and into parts of Canada. Pleasant, fall-like weather is expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 60’s to near 70 and chilly evenings and mornings.

A wrinkle in the forecast later this week is the development of a coastal storm system, which forecast models have been hinting at for several days. A weak mid level disturbance (the remnants of TS Karen) shifting northeastward will eventually track near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, developing a weak surface low offshore. The north/northwestward extent of the storm system, and associated precipitation shield, remains in question — and has significant impacts on our areas forecast. A farther northwest track would mean the potential for more significant rain in our area, while a weaker or farther southwest track (as a result of the strong high pressure holding its ground over New England), would mean unsettled weather but no heavy flooding rains.

NAM model showing an offshore coastal low producing unsettled weather and periods of rain throughout the area on Friday.

NAM model showing an offshore coastal low producing unsettled weather and periods of rain throughout the area on Friday

Regardless of the systems eventual track, unsettled weather looks likely to return by the tail end of this week beginning on Thursday with increasing clouds and a chance of showers. Periods of rain are likely, especially along the coast, from Thursday through Saturday — and depending on the northward progression of the system, the rain may be steady or heavy at times. Stay tuned for further details, and refining of the forecast, as we approach the event.

John Homenuk

Live Thread: Tornado Watch until 5pm

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Ahead of an expected severe weather threat including the potential for strong winds, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch this morning for all of New Jersey, Southeast New York and the NYC Metro Area. The Tornado Watch is in effect from 9:00 am this morning until 5:00pm this afternoon.  A tornado watch means conditions are are favorable for severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes in and around the watch area. Although not immediately likely, a higher than normal chance exists for gusty winds and isolated tornadoes this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center issued a Tornado Watch for much of the area this morning, in effect until 5:00pm. The area within the red box is included in the watch area.

The Storm Prediction Center issued a Tornado Watch for much of the area this morning, in effect until 5:00pm. The area within the red box is included in the watch area.

Earlier this morning, our article discussed the potential for severe weather this afternoon. A strong cold front approaching a very warm and moist airmass will be the focal point for the development of storms. However, more importantly, strong shear exists in multiple levels of the atmosphere near the approaching cold front. This will aid in storm organization, and amplify concern for strong winds mixing down to the surface later today. Although not likely to be widespread, an additional threat may exist for isolated tornadoes within an expected line of strong to severe storms.

Stay tuned this afternoon to this post, which will be automatically updated by our forecasters. Additionally, we will relay all additional watches and warnings via social media accounts on Facebook and Twitter.

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John Homenuk

Wind, severe weather possible Monday

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With the streak of pleasant weather now officially over, the forecast takes a bit of a turn from unsettled to hazardous on Monday. A warm front moving north through Central NJ late Sunday Night into Monday will bring a more warm and humid airmass, while a cold front swings towards the area from the west. As the warm front pushes north of the area, the atmosphere will become more unstable — and likely supportive of thunderstorms. Favorable shear in the mid and low levels will help storm organization, and a line of thunderstorms is expected to push towards the area later Monday. Strong winds just above the surface may even mix down with daytime heating — making for quite a breezy day even before thunderstorms arrive.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

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John Homenuk

A bit more unsettled today, Karen disorganized

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Warmer temperatures have been the trend over the past few days — and the pleasant streak of weather we have experienced over the last few weeks now looks to take a brief respite as we head into the weekend and the early part of next week. Increasing humidity today, coupled with a nearby boundary and mid-level atmospheric disturbance will mean increasing clouds and the chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Showers and storms haven’t been around in a while — in fact, almost two weeks (more in some spots). Today will bring isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the area from west to east, but the main story will be the humid feeling air and presence of more clouds than sun.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

The unsettled weather will continue through later tonight, but only scattered showers are expected this weekend. The main story will then be the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, and whether they track close enough to our area up the East Coast early next week to provide tropical rains. Forecast models have diverged in solutions, with some showing tropical rains and some wind while others now shunt the remnants of the system eastward out to sea.

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