February 2014 - Page 2 of 7 - New York Metro Weather

Ending the developing misconceptions regarding the Polar Vortex

February 25, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

It has been a media frenzy. Since January, when a piece of the Polar Vortex made its dramatic trip through the Central and Eastern United States, the misconceptions regarding its origins and actual definition have continued. Whether made in a joking manner or not, some of the ideas regarding the Polar Vortex’s actual characteristics have created a bit of an issue for meteorologists. When using it to describe the pattern, we now have to keep in mind the potential media impacts. To be frank: That is not the way it should be.

The Polar Vortex, in our hemisphere, is a persistent cyclone which is located near the North Pole. It features a counter-clockwise rotating pool of cold, dense air — some of the coldest on the globe, in fact. The vortex moves around to a certain extent, but generally remains in the vicinity of the poles. What separates and moves southward (sometimes towards our area) in anomalous patterns, are pieces of the Polar Vortex which feature characteristics of the vortex itself and similar air masses.

A significant piece of the Polar Vortex is forecast to drop into Southeast Canada later this week. Here, the GFS model forecasts its position at 500mb at 84 hours.

Two fireballs seen in the Northeast since Sunday

February 25, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The skies have been active in the NYC/NJ areas over the past several days. Multiple reports of a bright fireball were received on Sunday evening, from Vermont to New York. Observers reported the fireball “streaking through the sky, brightening and then dimming in only 10 seconds”. An additional fireball was reportedly seen on Monday night in much of the Northeast US including New York and New Jersey. Jersey Shore Hurricane News reader JP Dunne reported “I’m located in Oceanport, and it occurred directly south. Someone else had to see it.”\

Not surprisingly, the American Meteor Society has received hundreds of reports from both events — so we can almost certainly say that the events were not isolated or a hoax. The AMS uses a public submission form so that observers of meteors can submit their reports time, location, brightness and other information. You can view the reports from each event (and others throughout the United States over the past several days, weeks and months) at the AMS report page right here.

Most interestingly of all, the Sunday meteor had a little bit of luck involved. Ethan Rogati was taking long-exposure photographs of the sky in Vermont when the meteor flew directly through his field of view. The incredible photograph he captured is below. Although there have been a few meteors spotted in the Northeast US over the past few days, there is no meteor storm or shower currently occurring. Astronomers don’t anticipate a continued uptick in meteor activity.

Sunday’s meteor as captured by Ethan Rogati in Sand Bar State Park VT.

Cold, with nuiscance-type snow events this week

February 25, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

So far this winter, nearly every potential winter weather event has turned into something much larger than originally anticipated. This has created headaches and long work nights for meteorologists and forecasters alike. This week, we look to buck the trend a bit. A parade of disturbances through the mid levels of the atmosphere look likely to bring opportunity for light snowfall, but the progressive nature of the pattern will ultimately keep these events fast, with no significant or heavy precipitation and generally weak low pressure centers.

The result will be multiple periods of light snow, first on Tuesday afternoon and evening especially across Southeast New Jersey. Additional periods of light snow are expected both Wednesday afternoon (area-wide) and Thursday (mostly across northern zones). But when all is said and done, the general theme will be light accumulations only (generally a trace to 1″), as the intensity and duration of the snow will be far too light to cause any significant issues. Still, roads could become slick for a period of time so as always we advise traveling with caution. There are no signals for banding or areas of heavy precipitation that could surprise us.

NAM model forecasting light snow/snow showers to impact the area on Wednesday (similar impacts expected Tuesday).

Cold air filters in, light snow likely this week

February 24, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Temperatures fell back towards normal on Monday (it wasn’t hard to notice the lack of warmth and return of colder wind), with highs generally only reaching the mid to upper 30’s throughout the area. While this certainly felt more chilly than what we experienced this weekend, the real chill is still on the way this coming Tuesday and is expected to continue through the week. More interestingly, a parade of disturbances is likely to traverse the country from the Pacific northwest towards the East Coast, providing multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation in the area.

The main difficulty in the forecast will be the exact track of these systems, owing to the positioning of the Polar Vortex which is forecast to remain parked over Southeast Canada. This positioning allows for plentiful cold air, but also suppresses the baroclinic zone and favored storm track to our south. Forecast models, picking up on this and the southward sag of the arctic front, have trended farther south and east with the storm system forecast to track near the East Coast on Wednesday — the first in the parade. Currently, light snow still seems likely due to favorable jet streak positioning, but the heaviest precipitation is expected to remain offshore.

GFS model showing Wednesday’s potential system passing mostly seaward.

Archive for month: February, 2014