February 2014 - Page 7 of 7 - New York Metro Weather

A low pressure system developing along a stalled frontal boundary is likely to bring precipitation to the entire area beginning early Monday morning, with cold air funneling in from the west/northwest behind the front and changing precipitation to snow throughout the area. Forecast models have trended much farther north and more expansive with the precipitation shield associated with this low pressure — and as a result, we are now expecting the potential for moderate snowfall accumulations throughout the area. There are several uncertainties still remaining with the forecast system, including timing and temperatures, but confidence continues to increase in the accumulation forecast today.

Snow is expected to begin in Northern NJ, NYC, SE NY and Connecticut during the early morning hours on Monday. Across parts of Central and Southern NJ, precipitation may begin as rain or may be mixed. As precipitation intensity increases, dynamic cooling will occur — changing most areas to snow. The exception may be in Southeast NJ and parts of Long Island, near the coast, where warmer air in the low levels will keep precipitation mixed or stop snow from accumulating. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy snow is then expected to continue throughout much of the morning and early afternoon.

Storm Total Snowfall Forecast as issued by our meteorologists on February 2, 2014.

Given the nature and degree of the cold snaps so far this winter season, it seems like every warm up deserves a lot of attention. There have only been a few this year (most notably one in December and one in mid January) — and another is on the way this weekend. Conveniently timed during the Super Bowl festivities in New York City, a low pressure system will ride to the north of our area on Sunday providing a warm southerly fetch out ahead of it. The bulk of precipitation associated with the storm looks likely to stay north of our area as well, with just a few showers possible on Sunday. There is also some potential for a period of steady rain early Sunday morning across Southern New Jersey.

Sunday will feature some of the warmest weather in weeks as high temperatures will rise through the 40’s and approach 50 during the day. A cold front will move towards the area Sunday Night — during the Super Bowl — and the wind shift will mark a change (or return) to a colder and more wintry airmass. Northwest winds will usher in much cooler air aloft and at the surface by Sunday Night, with the front moving just east of the area. But the story doesn’t end there. A developing disturbance over the Southern US will shift northeastward along this frontal boundary, potentially resulting in a winter weather event on Monday.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures well into the 40’s on Sunday afternoon.

Moderate snowstorm likely on Monday

Super Sunday warmup will be short lived

Archive for month: February, 2014