Archive for month: February, 2014

Our snow and ice storm is moving out of the region, producing copious amounts of snow just north of the city — where up to a foot fell in Southern New York and parts of New England. 4″ of snow fell in New York City,  before turning over to 1/4″ of freezing rain, and a widespread significant ice storm resulted in widespread power losses in interior New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Quite frankly, it is a mess outside. Concerns begin to elevate again, as temperatures begin to fall back into the 20s, leading any standing water on roadways to refreeze back into ice. Additionally, tree limbs may also collapse on area roadways, leading to more problems. We highly recommend taking serious caution when commuting this evening and tonight. Tomorrow morning’s commute may even be hazardous, as well.

Now that this storm is wrapping up, we can begin to shift our attention towards the weekend. A couple of days ago, many computer models began to show a potent nor’easter hitting the East Coast producing widespread significant snowfall amounts. And while many of the ingredients are still there for a major snowfall, the evolution of the pattern has changed a bit as none of the models are forecasting a major snowstorm for the weekend at this time. That being said, we still need to keep a close eye on this system. For more background information on the evolution of the pattern, why it is so active, and what the models were initially showing this weekend, check out our article from two days ago. 

Let’s take a look at what has changed. Below, we will see the 500mb pattern on the European Model from two days ago, valid for Thursday evening, as well as today’s European model, valid for that same time period.

The European Model run at 500mb from two days ago, valid for Thursday evening. It showed more potential for a big storm this weekend. Image credit goes to the WSI Model Lab.

Today’s European Model valid for Thursday evening shows a less amplified pattern in Western Canada, which explains why it is not as threatening for this weekend. Image Credit goes to the WSI Model Lab.

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There is an old saying in meteorology and folklore which says “Dry begets dry”. An adaptation of that saying could be true over the next 7 days in our area; as “Snow begets snow”. Monday’s snowstorm, as the story is written, brought 7-10″ to a vast majority of the forecast area. With periods of moderate to heavy snow beginning during the early morning and continuing into the afternoon, the storm was “high impact” by nature. And the 6+” of snowfall set a record for the day at Central Park which was previously set in 1996. Despite the significant snowfall in much of the area on Monday, there is no time for reminiscing — attention will turn to more events this week and into the weekend which could also prove to be of significant nature.

The first winter weather event on the horizon comes on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and the potential combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain has already prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Storm Watch. Yes, this means we are currently under a Winter Storm Warning for Monday’s storm, and a Winter Storm Watch for a future storm, at the same time. It has been decades (no, really) since the NYC area was under a congruent Winter Storm Warning and Winter Storm Watch for different events. This speaks volumes to the active nature of this weather pattern. The second storm we have to track is for the Sunday and Monday period, which some modeling data has already indicated the potential for a blockbuster. Remember, there is a major difference between potential and hype, and we highly suggest you read our article about it if you have not already. 

Heavy wet snow falling in Rockville Centre, NY at around 9:45am EST on Monday, February 3rd. This probably won’t be the last time this week we have a wintry scene like this.

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