Pleasant start, but heavy rain likely Friday Night

It is not often, this time of year, that a relatively progressive passing disturbance will force the development of a low pressure system around 995mb off the Northeast US Coast. Exactly that will occur late Friday Night into early Saturday, as a mid and upper level disturbance passing through the Northeast US with some vigor moves toward New England. Forecast models indicate a high likelihood of increasing moisture as well as strengthening lift for precipitation by Friday Night — even some weak instability which could force thunderstorms — along an axis which will shift from west to east. This raises confidence in a period of heavy rain Friday Night into Saturday morning, as the low pressure system passes nearby and eventually into the Gulf of Maine.

Not all will be lost, however. Much of Friday will turn out pleasant. This morning, visible satellite imagery showed only some filtered high clouds moving into the area. High temperatures on most forecast models are expected to reach into the lower 60’s. Most notably, however, the winds which were blustery over the past few days have settled down. As a result, the 60 degree temperatures will feel much more comfortable in the warm sun as opposed to the brisk and blustery winds. Rain is forecast to move into the area after the PM Rush, and will be out of the area by Saturday’s sunrise.

Simulated radar for tonight shows an area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.

Simulated radar for tonight shows an area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.

With the cold front lingering back to our northwest on Saturday, newer forecast models like the idea of west-southwesterly winds and some sunshine in a very small “Warm sector” Saturday afternoon. Temperatures could rebound well into the 60’s where the sun shines. With cooler air moving in aloft as the front moves through, some showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop Saturday afternoon, followed by a frontal passage and intrusion of cooler air with northwesterly winds becoming blustery once again.

Storm Prediction Center issues rare “Moderate Risk” on Day 3 Outlook

Back to our west, concern is building for a potential significant severe weather event during the latter half of the weekend and continuing into the early part of next week from the Eastern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a rare “Moderate Risk” on it’s Day 3 outlook. Moderate Risks are somewhat rare as it is, but the Storm Prediction Center only issues them 3 days in advance slightly less than 1 time per year on average.

Day 3 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing a Moderate Risk across parts of the Arkaltex.

Day 3 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing a Moderate Risk across parts of the Arkaltex.

This time around, a significant mid and upper level system driving into the Southwest US will move toward the Plains — and touch off the development of widespread severe thunderstorms. Favorable wind fields and shear juxtaposed with moderate to strong instability will set the stage for a potential multi-day severe weather event.

Even beyond the Day 3 Moderate Risk, the Storm Prediction Centers Day 4-7 Outlook is strongly and ominously worded:

 ...MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY
   FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
   SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...

You can stay updated on the developing severe weather potential by keeping a close eye on our Twitter/Facebook accounts and articles, as well as visiting the Storm Prediction Center’s homepage for the latest updates.

Cutoff low still likely to bring unsettled weather next week

We’ll be breaking down the pattern evolution in a more detailed post later this morning. But without getting too technical or detailed, forecast models still agree on the fact that the blocking pattern over the Northern Hemisphere will continue to evolve, eventually leading to multiple cutoff lows in the United States. Such a development will lead to unsettled weather in our area as the cutoff low drifts from the Central US towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This is likely to occur by the middle part of next week, as an Omega Block develops (we promise we’ll detail this later this morning, really) and two cutoff lows develop — one over the Gulf of Maine and another over the Central US. Eventually, increasing moisture and lift will approach the area with the potential for periods of steady/heavy rain beginning by the middle part of the upcoming week. Keep an eye out later this morning for a new article breaking it down — but if you’re making plans for next week already, include a raincoat and an umbrella in them.

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