In the wake of a severe weather event which produced multiple reports of large hail in New Jersey and New York on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are once again expected on Friday afternoon. The culprit is a developing upper level system, which will meander near the area (and the entire Northeast US) through this weekend. Although the storms on Friday won’t be severe (we’re lacking many ingredients including moderate to strong instability and wind shear), they could still bring periods of heavy rain and thunder.
To start, however, Friday will be characterized mostly by low clouds and fog. Drizzle should continue into the late morning hours with the marine air entrenched in the region. But as it begins to burn off in the early afternoon, some peaks of sun are expected to filter in and out of the clouds, and daytime heating will help to trigger some storms within an environment favorable for shower and non-severe storm development. “Self-destructive sunshine” is a term used by meteorologists for days like this — the appearance of the sun just fuels additional showers and storms.
Later Friday Night, showers and storms will begin to shift eastward as the perturbation rotating around the aforementioned upper level low shifts eastward as well. The associated clouds should make it east toward Long Island eventually during the overnight period into Saturday morning (important for the Camelopardid meteor shower).
The good news, as we move into the Memorial Day Weekend? Although the upper level low will still meander near the area — sunshine will be a staple within the forecast. Saturday and Sunday both look to feature sunshine to start, with scattered showers and storms moving north to south during the mid afternoon hours. Not a washout by any means — although storms could cause brief flooding if the rain is heavy enough.
The best news of all is that Monday — Memorial Day, actually — will harbor some very warm air and very little wind or cold breeze. Westerly winds will take over, and usher in warmer air aloft which has been bottled up over the Central US toward the Ohio Valley. Surface temperatures will respond, even down to the area beaches, with high temperatures in the 80’s expected throughout much of the area.
Stay tuned for updates on the Memorial Day weekend forecast as the weekend continues, including details on any storms and the high temperatures on what looks to be a beautiful Monday.