It has been the season of backdoor cold fronts so far this Spring, and yet another one is poised to move southwestward from New England during the middle part of this week. For the time being, our area is nestled just to the south of the backdoor frontal boundary. What this means for Tuesday is continued, if not enhanced southerly flow and very warm temperatures. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s are likely throughout the area — and warm temperatures are even possible down to the beaches with an offshore wind direction.
By Tuesday afternoon, however, increased support for lift along the broad frontal zone will increase the chances for the development of showers and thunderstorms. With moderate instability in place and marginally supportive wind fields, strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility. Dropping from the northwest, these storms will be on the periphery of good upper level support, and may make it as far as the area beaches while maintaining strong to severe intensity. Namely, dangerous lightning and strong winds are a possibility within these storms.
Once the storms shift east of the area late Tuesday Night, the focus will turn to the approaching backdoor cold front. Fueled by an upper level trough to our north and east, the thermal gradient will approach the area by Wednesday and bring a major change in sensible weather. Cooler, more damp marine air will once again infiltrate the area and temperatures will fall by 20 degrees.
Widespread clouds and drizzle will also be a theme on Wednesday through Thursday morning. The silver lining in this backdoor front is its longevity. By Thursday and Friday, forecast models are in good agreement that the front will begin to wash out. This will loosen the grip of the marine air, and allow for a rebound in temperatures and more pleasant conditions by late week.
Early hints at the forecast for the early part of next week indicate a building mid level ridge and the return of warm temperatures — but this has proven to be fantasy more than once so far this Spring. We’ll have to see if this time it becomes a reality. We are all hoping.