Muggier, warmer weather returns this week

Although the weekend may be coming to a close, too quickly as it always seems to be, there is some good news in the forecast for the upcoming week. A building ridge (we haven’t heard that statement in a while) will bring increasing mid level temperatures and rising heights aloft. The presence of high latitude blocking and a persistent ridge out west have, for the most part this summer, inhibited the development of any ridging in the Northeast United States. But, as is the case with all patterns, there are exceptions — and eventually changes. For this week, we’ll see the return of a southwesterly winds and warmer temperatures as well as increasing humidity.

High temperatures by the middle of the week could flirt with 90 degrees in the urban corridor of Philadelphia to New York City. This will be especially true on Wednesday, when mid level temperatures will peak around 18 C, typically supportive of temperatures over 90 degrees. The warm weather won’t last forever, but while it’s around during the early to middle part of this coming week it will certainly feel more like summer. Or more like August should feel, compared to the Autumn-like air we’ve become accustomed to over the last week or two.

NAM model showing temperatures in the upper 80's on Tuesday afternoon.

NAM model showing temperatures in the upper 80’s on Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Cristobal, meanwhile, continues to churn in the Caribbean this Sunday evening. The system is expected to strengthen some over the next day or two, but it will turn northward on the eastern periphery of the ridge which we mentioned earlier. This ridge will serve to keep the tropical system away from the East Coast of the United States. The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to strengthen into a Hurricane during the next day or two, hundreds of miles out in the Atlantic Ocean.

National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Tropical Storm Cristobal.

National Hurricane Center’s forecast track for Tropical Storm Cristobal.

For several days, forecast models were wildly inconsistent with the track of Cristobal. But the apparent mid to upper level pattern suggested a re-curvature was the most likely scenario — and such a scenario has in fact emerged. The system could still cause some rough surf along some beaches during the mid to latter part of the upcoming week.