Meteorological Fall brings start of summery weather

It almost couldn’t be any more ironic. The start of Meteorological Fall, which falls annually on September 1st,  has typically been a fairly good indicator of when the summer weather would end and give way to more fall-like conditions. This year, however, the summery weather has in fact waited until the start of meteorological fall to get underway. Temperatures on Tuesday, which obviously still falls within calendar/astronomical summer, will reach into the mid 90’s. Making matters worse, rising humidity will lead to heat index values in the upper 90’s. The heat and humidity will become borderline oppressive — and we suggest taking time away from the sun and making a conscious effort to remain hydrated.

NAM model showing highs in the mid 90's on Tuesday.

NAM model showing highs in the mid 90’s on Tuesday.

Showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon hours as a summery pattern continues — and the upcoming week won’t be any different. After a bit of a cool down by Wednesday behind a weak mid level disturbance, the warm push will begin again as mid level heights rise. 850mb temperatures will begin to rise once again by the tail end of the week, exceeding 18 C on Friday ( a good signal for 90+ F temperatures to return).

What’s more, almost all forecast models agree the warmth will come from a west-southwesterly flow. This means that seabreezes should be kept seaward for the first half of the afternoon at least, allowing temperatures to rise into the 90’s even close to the area beaches. Of course, there are always exceptions right along the shore this time of year.

NAM model showing highs in the 90's on Friday with Southeast winds.

NAM model showing highs in the 90’s on Friday with Southeast winds.

But the idea of warmer than normal temperatures, and even heat, looks to continue through the medium range. Forecast models are in good agreement that the pattern of East Coast troughs may have finally buckled — allowing for rising heights to become a more common theme along the Eastern Seaboard. This could mean more summery weather as we approach the beginning of calendar Fall.