While the first day of Fall is technically not until Tuesday, September 23rd, we have already had a lovely taste of fall and this should continue for the foreseeable future. In the wake of yesterday’s rain, an area of high pressure has filtered in, leading to sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Some cumulus clouds are forming to the west as evidenced in the latest satellite — but those will not be producing any rain.
With clear skies and calm winds tonight, temperatures should fall quickly into the 50s, and perhaps into the 40s in the coldest spots.
Moving forward to tomorrow, the weather looks very similar today — but with perhaps a few more clouds and a touch warmer — with temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds shifting a bit more northwesterly as a high pressure system approaches will allow for a tad more downsloping flow, explaining the warming. On Thursday night, the high pressure will pass directly to our north, shifting the winds to the north and then the northeast, which will help to make conditions relatively chilly on Thursday night and Friday.
With the winds shifting to the north and then the northeast, very chilly temperatures will occur in Upstate NY and New England, with many areas perhaps seeing their first frost. Further south towards our area, northeast winds tend to bring in some air from the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island sound, moderating our temperatures and preventing them from becoming too chilly. That being said, low 50s for lows may still be commonplace throughout the area on Friday morning.
As the high pressure continues to shift east on Friday, winds will shift from the northeast to due east — essentially directly off the Atlantic Ocean. While winds off the Ocean can keep temperatures warmer at night this time of year, they keep temperatures cooler during the day. This results in most locations not getting out of the 60s on Friday, despite a good deal of sunshine. There could also be some more clouds forming thanks to the ocean influence, but not enough to sway from a partly cloudy forecast.
After another chilly night on Friday night, the weekend will warm up significantly on the back side of the high pressure. Winds will shift to the southwest as a storm system forms well to our northwest. This will allow a warm front to pass the region on Saturday. Moisture should be relatively limited, so sunshine will continue. Temperatures should warm into the mid and upper 70s on Saturday, and perhaps hitting 80 on Sunday!
Forecast models are up in arms regarding a potential coastal storm, which could form thanks to some tropical moisture and a weak disturbance aloft later this weekend. Most models, at this point, take this slug of moisture east of the area over the Atlantic Ocean. But some outliers bring the moisture near the coast — which obviously would throw a wrench into the forecast and bring dreary conditions to the area on Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on it, but as it stands now it looks likely that an approaching cold front will sweep that disturbance seaward.
The aforementioned cold front looks to slide through the area on Sunday night, perhaps triggering a few showers on Sunday night and/or Monday morning. As of now, though, the moisture looks fairly limited. Once the front moves through, temperatures will fall back to seasonal levels early next week.